Their vulnerability is exposed when citizens lose their fear of protesting and revolt, especially during a period of great crisis. Mr. Kim likely has drawn historical lessons from two fallen autocrats. There’s the specter of the last leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, whose policy of openness ― “glasnost” ― washed away the populace’s fear of their government, a nightmare scenario for Communist fellow traveler like Mr. Kim. After a failed KGB coup, the Soviet Union collapsed, and Mr. Gorbachev was soon out of power. And there’s Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi, who rolled back his weapons of mass destruction programs in a deal with Britain and the U.S. When civil war subsequently erupted, Mr. Gadhafi had no capability to deter NATO involvement on the side of his opponents, who killed him near his birthplace. Without a nuclear deterrent, Mr. Kim would likely be staring at the same fate as Libya’s late strongman. The Biden administration must be prepared for Mr. Kim’s regime to collapse entirely and, with it, control over North Korea’s nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. But Washington should also challenge the assumptions on which denuclearization talks with Pyongyang have been based. It strains logic to believe that Mr. Kim would develop a vast and expensive nuclear and ballistic missile capability only to barter it away for food, more energy imports, and a constructive relationship with the world community. North Korea has never indicated a willingness to provide an inventory of its nuclear weapons or agreed to a realistic plan for their destruction.

Reappearing in June at a Politburo meeting after months out of the public spotlight, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un lambasted party officials for their failure to counter the coronavirus pandemic ― even though North Korea has, of course, confirmed not even one COVID-19 case. Seeking a scapegoat for the Hermit Kingdom’s horrific health care system, lack of medical supplies, and a self-imposed blockade, Mr. Kim replaced a number of his senior officials. U.S. intelligence agencies are on the hook to determine whether Mr. Kim’s visible weight loss (which North Korean state TV’s thought police explained away as the toll endured by a “devoted and hardworking” leader) might be indicative of a serious, potentially incapacitating illness. A diminutive chain-smoker reportedly weighing over 300 pounds, Mr. Kim, medically speaking, is a ticking time bomb. Mr. Kim’s health status is a critically important data point because his children are too young to succeed him. A paranoid, ruthless dictator who assassinated his half-brother with a chemical nerve agent in Malaysia’s international airport, Mr. Kim has no clear succession plan. His lengthy disappearance from public view in 2020 even sparked speculation (unconfirmed) that he had made his younger sister, Kim Yo Jong, his de facto second-in-command. Mr. Kim’s totalitarian regime would not exist without a ruthless suppression of the rights of his own people. The catch-22 is that Mr. Kim likely fears that a prosperous North Korea open to the outside world will lead to public pressure for a free society and democratic reforms. Even as they seek to project an outward appearance of strength, autocratic regimes like Mr. Kim’s are inherently brittle and decrepit.

Communist China has been threatening for years to regain control of Taiwan by any means necessary. Thanks to US support, Taiwan has maintained its independence and developed into a free, democratic, and prosperous home for more than 23 million Chinese who have no desire to be “reunited” with their Communist brothers and sisters on the mainland. Even as the Biden Administration officials continue to assure the Taiwanese that we have their back and continue to sell the island defensive weapons, many diplomats worldwide and even within US military circles wonder if the United States is doing enough to persuade Beijing of the seriousness of our commitment to a trusted and reliable ally. The symbolic and real-world consequences of abandoning Taiwan cannot be overestimated. The island nation is a true outpost of democracy in the Pacific and one of the very few nations in history to develop on its own into a vibrant democracy. As such, it has served as a beacon to Chinese everywhere and an alternative to the vision of Beijing’s Communist rulers. Taiwan’s mere existence just off the coast of the mainland must be particularly grating to Beijing. In a strategic sense, Taiwan, as an incredibly well-placed reliable ally, is crucial unless the U.S. wants to accept ceding control of the sea lanes and the entire western Pacific region to Beijing. Failing to stand by Taipei after decades of assurances that we have her back would let other nations in the region know that they are on their own against an aggressive, well-armed, wealthy, and growing Chinese empire. Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and India would get the message and begin kowtowing to the emerging hegemon.

In 2002, Beijing cautiously supported the U.S. intervention in Afghanistan. This positioning has not prevented the PRC from conducting its own cautious diplomacy in Afghanistan. Beijing has developed economic ties and a security partnership with the Afghan government while establishing relations with the Taliban‘s diplomatic mission in Qatar. The U.S. plan to withdraw from Afghanistan has made China‘s efforts to reach out to the Taliban even more urgent. Chinese officials have stepped up contacts with their representatives. China is currently courting the Taliban mainly to preserve its security interests - foremost among them security in Xinjiang and along its border - and protect its investments in Central Asia and its Silk Road projects (notably the CPEC with Pakistan). For the time being, on the issue of the Uighurs, the Taliban have given Beijing some assurances. They have pledged not to interfere in China‘s internal affairs and not allow Afghan territory to be used by “anti-Chinese forces.” But some observers point out that the Taliban have hardly kept any other promises (such as disavowing al-Qaeda), and Beijing would do well to remain cautious. The Taliban are also looking for legitimacy at the international level. Therefore, talks with Beijing are beneficial because they allow them to present themselves as legitimate and credible interlocutors. The local situation remains open, and there is no indication that the Chinese strategy will ultimately succeed. The United States should carefully monitor China‘s actions in Afghanistan. It could be a testing ground for the possibility of Sino-American cooperation or, if left alone, could provide Beijing with an opportunity to increase its influence in Central Asia and toward the Indian Ocean and even the Middle East.

China is engaging with the Taliban and monitoring developments on the ground as the U.S. exits Afghanistan. It’s a situation America should be closely monitoring. China’s interests in Afghanistan are primarily security-related. The stabilization of Afghanistan, with which Beijing shares a short border in a susceptible area (Xinjiang province), is important for China. The security of its borders and this region are at stake. Beijing wants to prevent a surge of violent jihadism in Xinjiang, where Chinese authorities have detained between 1 and 3 million Muslims (Uyghurs, Kazakhs, …) for “re-education” in the largest mass incarceration of people on religious grounds since World War II. The CCP must avoid threats from Islamic radicalism but also drug trafficking that may emanate from Afghanistan. Beijing also intends to protect its economic interests developed during the 2000s in Central Asia, which are added, under the presidency of Xi Jinping, those linked to the Belt and Road initiative (BRI). In the latter case, given developments in Afghanistan, Beijing particularly wants to preserve its heavy investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is supposed to be the flagship of its BRI initiative. It is already encountering numerous difficulties. Economic interests with Afghanistan are not absent, even if they are more marginal. Trade between China and Afghanistan is admittedly small (about US$600 million in 2020), but Afghanistan’s mineral and energy resources are of interest to the Chinese state companies. Historically Beijing has had pragmatic contact with the Taliban.

The country with the fewest foreign-born citizens is China. According to a report from the United Nations, they have almost no migrants coming to their country. Why aren’t more people from around the world opting to move to China? The answer is their fundamental lack of freedom and opportunity under the oppressive Communist regime. Remember the brave Chinese man who stood in front of the tanks leaving Tiananmen Square on June 5, 1989? His image spread around the world. It was one of the most iconic images of all time. We still do not know what happened to “Tank Man” more than three decades later. Amnesty International said this about China during 2020: “The year was marked by harsh crackdowns on human rights defenders and people perceived to be dissidents, as well as the systematic repression of ethnic minorities. The beginning of the year 2020 saw the start of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, which killed more than 4,600 people in China. People demanded freedom of expression and transparency after authorities reprimanded health professionals for warning about the virus. Stringent restrictions on freedom of expression continued unabated. Foreign journalists faced detention and expulsion, as well as systematic delays to and refusals of visa renewals. Chinese and other tech firms operating outside China blocked what the government deemed politically sensitive content, extending its censorship standards internationally. Hong Kong’s National Security Law led to a clampdown on freedom of expression. There is increasing evidence that China has detained more than one million Uyghurs in “re-education camps” over the past few years.

COVID-19 has been detected in more than a dozen species, including minks, great apes, lions, tigers, cats, dogs and pigs. The potential for a new strain that can spread to humans, outsmart public health agencies and spreading globally is real and palpable. International travel should be limited for several more years. Multilateralists have suggested a grand effort to vaccinate the world and contain new pathogens, but extra cash and a piece of paper in Geneva won’t take public health nurses into every hamlet in the developing world. If we don’t want to risk another Black Plague, commercial contact with most of the world will be limited to Zooming and put in place the tough protocols for workplaces and public gatherings. It is amusing but also tragic in terms of squandered resources to see large corporations building new grand workspaces for a new era when folks only commute three days a week. COVID-19 and the netherworld emerging is forcing us to embrace technologies that have been waiting like orphans among childless adults. We have been happy to rely on smartphones for personal finance and Facetime for social interactions but would not readily embrace artificial intelligence to save time and Internet tools to accomplish collaboration. All in all, adapt or don’t survive but in the bargain, we may be on the cusp of a productivity breakout that ends years of anemic economic growth. Prolonged pandemics radically change social arrangements. The Black Plague created labor scarcity, caused the peasantry to overturn the feudal order and set Europe on the path to a modern economy.

Americans should brace for a netherworld between the pandemic and normalcy. COVID-19 won’t last forever, but making vaccines available to all adults is no silver bullet. Jabbing 80% of the population for known strains of COVID-19 will prove tough. Getting vaccines to the homeless, poor and illegal immigrants is especially difficult. Public health and community service agencies are sending mobile units into those communities, but the marginalized are among the most likely to shun good science. A recent CDC-Census Bureau study found 17% of the population definitely or probably won’t get a shot, 20% of the population is under 16 and many others should not be vaccinated for medical reasons. Vaccines are being tested in adolescents and young children, but it is easy to see that it will be difficult to get to 80% before 2022. Businesses can fully reopen offices, restaurants and concert halls and theaters to workers and patrons showing proof of vaccination. And where enforceable, subject to temperature checks, testing, digital tracking and isolation when necessary. It’s time for reasonable people to say enough. Make exceptions with precautions for those medically unable to be vaccinated, but science deniers should be left to a marginalized world. Vaccination can take us only so far, because among the unvaccinated population new, more lethal variants of COVID-19 are emerging, and the petri dish outside the United States is percolating. The challenges of quickly vaccinating the developing world are daunting. Most of the world is a ready host to develop strains that could outsmart our vaccines.

This association was restarted by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who himself has real world experience with potential regional and global hegemons. He led a platoon at the Fulda Gap ― the narrowest strip of West Germany between East Germany and France ― thought to be the place most likely to be invaded by the Soviets in the 1960s, ‘70s and ‘80s. Mr. Pompeo saw and sees with clarity the risk posed to Taiwan by communist China. Restarting the Quad is the most sensible and prudential foreign policy move made by the United States since the deployment of medium-range nuclear missiles in Europe in the mid-1980s. For the United States especially, the risk posed by communist China is complicated by our numerous and unfortunate commercial relationships. People, companies and organizations as disparate as John Cena, Apple and the NBA have repeated or are inclined to accept and repeat propaganda from communist China. Even the Biden administration is preparing to embark on an energy policy that would trade our current energy independence (or our status as an exporter of energy) for dependence on communist China for batteries both for electric vehicles and utilities. We have been playing the wrong game with communist China for too long. Presidents Truman and Kennedy and every postwar president came to understand, prepare for, and minimize the risk posed by the Soviet Union. Let’s hope that in our current moment, our leaders can come to understand the risk posed by China. With respect to Beijing, that starts with resolve to defend Taiwan.

Mr. Aso knows that a loss of Taiwan would place Tokyo squarely in the sights of the communists in China. Of course, his conclusion is right. If we are unable or unwilling to defend Taiwan, it is unlikely that we will be able or willing to defend Japan. This is not idle speculation. Recently, the Chinese communist-controlled publication Naval and Merchant Ships outlined with some specificity (including weapons to be used) a possible three-stage plan for a military invasion of Taiwan. President Xi Jinping has, as part of the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, made it clear that “reunification” is one of his top priorities. The loss of Taiwan would send the Philippines and Indonesia - which are already wobbly because of their economic relationships - toward the Chinese communist orbit. It almost certainly would require the Japanese to remilitarize and acquire nuclear weapons. Is Team Biden ready for such a thing? It seems unlikely. They are having trouble responding with clarity and strength to a handful of Russian hackers operating with the tacit approval of the Russian government. President Biden gave Russian President Vladimir Putin a list of sectors that he wished the Russians would avoid. Team Biden is also caught up in a romanticized version of the relevance of the NATO alliance. The idea that NATO allies are going anywhere to help us fight anyone is quaint, and, like cavalry charges in the early days of World War II, misguided and perhaps fatal to those who believe in it. The United States’ most important alliance right now is the Quad, a confederation of India, the U.S., Australia and Japan directed at providing a counterbalance to Communist China in the Pacific region.