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[WT논평] Expert predictions that have failed (2)
Economists are often regarded as the oracles of financial markets and national economies. Their predictions, however, often go awry, sometimes with catastrophic consequences. Most recently, President Biden’s economic advisers, including the treasury secretary and the chairman of the Federal Reserve, missed the inflation of the last three years. Many economists had warned that the big increase in the monetary supply as a response to the pandemic would cause inflation but were ignored by the Biden administration’s “experts.” Many economists worldwide believed that Japan’s rapid economic expansion before 1990 would continue indefinitely, dubbing it the Japanese Economic Miracle. But the asset bubble burst in the early 1990s, leading to the Lost Decade of stagnation. This misjudgment stemmed from a failure to account for underlying structural issues within the Japanese economy, such as demographic challenges and rigid corporate practices. Back in 1968, biologist Paul Ehrlich wrote a book, “The Population Bomb,” warning that the world would soon run out of resources because of the rapidly rising overpopulation. His “mankind was doomed” thesis was soon accepted as the conventional wisdom by the global elite. But a funny thing happened on the way to overpopulation doomsday ― population growth started slowing to the point where most countries are now below replacement levels ― that is, women, on average, are having fewer children (less than two) than needed for a stable population. In the last few months, there have been articles in major media about the coming depopulation disaster ― leading to an underpopulation doomsday.
2024.07.15 23:45:56
[WT논평] Expert predictions that have failed (1)
Last week, a House committee revealed emails from David Morens, who worked under Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The emails further indicate a cover-up as to the origins of COVID-19 (a Chinese lab). Dr. Fauci was the federal government’s primary architect in response to and spokesperson in the COVID-19 pandemic. There is considerable evidence that Dr. Fauci and his colleagues were wrong in assessing the disease and the correct response to it. The result of the COVID-19 misinformation campaign was to destroy millions of jobs and businesses, unnecessarily shut down schools, and damage future generations. It also caused undue panic among young people who had little chance of contracting fatal infections from the disease and many excess deaths because of undertreatment of those most at risk while misallocating resources to those at little risk. The public, understandably had little knowledge of exotic viruses. All turned to the experts. Dr. Fauci had the title and experience. Yet few were aware of how little he knew. He conned millions at a terrible cost by failing to admit what he did not know and pretending to know things he did not know. When an issue requires specialized knowledge or experience, people naturally seek out the “experts.” The experts shape public policy, business strategies and societal expectations. Yet history is replete with examples where the experts in science, political and military affairs, economics, demography, history, and the environment have failed to provide accurate information, leading to incorrect actions and predictions.
2024.07.14 23:16:58
[WT논평] Legislative action that bars communist infiltration
Honestly, it’s high time to take dramatic action against the communists from China who seek to destroy America the great. Everybody knows the Chinese Communist Party is a threat to freedom. Everybody knows the CCP has for years been making inroads into America ― infiltrating America’s schools, America’s social media, America’s economy, America’s culture. But here’s the real concerning part: America keeps having this conversation about the perils of China’s communists ― but little is actually legislative. Little gets done to turn away the communists from America’s soil. Turning away the communist influences in America is about as simple as keeping out illegals. It’s a simple process. Keeping out illegals means closing borders and allowing in only those who pass constitutional muster and medical standards and security checks. Keeping out communists from China means preventing communists from China from owning any properties that could compromise America’s national security ― or preventing communists from China from schooling youth at America’s colleges ? or stopping communists from China from taking over U.S. movie theaters and pork producers and home mortgages and basketball teams. It’s not brain surgery. It’s actually pretty simple. The only thing lacking is political will. And the only reason political will is lacking is that too many of our politicians are more beholden, for whatever the reason, to China’s interests than America’s. We all know China is bad for America. Now let’s take the common sense steps that have been missing from that acknowledgment for years: bold legislative action that targets and bars communist infiltration of this country.
2024.07.09 23:21:32
[WT논평] The nation divides into increasingly bitter sides
Many commentators lament the nation’s division into increasingly bitter sides. Some of what they say makes sense. It’s a shame we can’t agree to disagree anymore. People cut off friends and even family for having the wrong opinion. In a recent Wall Street Journal column, left-leaning comedian Bill Maher took a position of neutrality. He worries that things could escalate into actual violence. A cabdriver from Bosnia told him that in his country, he had seen “next-door neighbors who despise each other” become mortal enemies as that country was plunged into actual war. Mr. Maher spent more ink criticizing the right and made no mention of the leftist, antisemitic campus protests or the Black Lives Matter and Antifa riots. But he did note that an old friend he had invited to a party declined upon learning that a Trump voter would be there. “I wouldn’t breathe the same air,” the invitee said. Yes, we need to get along and to try to understand others with whom we disagree. Yes, there are loons on both sides. But one side ? the left ? is turning the United States into a Third World country as fast as it can by whipping up division and abusing federal power. For example, President Biden gave another speech pouring acid on racial wounds, this time at Morehouse College, where he basically told graduates that America hates them for being Black. By all means, let us be civil. But our liberties will soon be history if we confuse civility with a comfortable retreat into neutrality.
2024.07.08 23:37:40
[WT논평] Russia is using North Korea as a pawn
The mutual defense pact that Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed on June 19 was a victory for Mr. Putin and a major component of his strategy for Eurasia. A heavily sanctioned Russia, bogged down in its war in Ukraine, viewed North Korea as a potential ally and supplier of weapons. North Korea’s new strategic partnership with Russia is a game-changer for the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia and the U.S. An emboldened North Korea will get Russia’s sophisticated technical assistance for its nuclear, ballistic missile and satellite programs. Indeed, this new alliance with Russia must concern South Korea. Mr. Putin obviously calculated that it was in Russia’s interest to foment greater tension on the Korean Peninsula. Russia established this new alliance with North Korea, not only because Russia will receive the artillery shells and ballistic missiles it needs for its war of aggression in Ukraine but because Mr. Putin wants to incite conflict in East Asia as part of his Eurasia strategy ? wars in Europe and Asia. China should be concerned that an emboldened nuclear North Korea is now aligned with a revanchist Russian Federation, bent on fomenting instability on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. This is not in China’s interest. Diplomatic engagement should be a major component of U.S. policy toward North Korea, in addition to containment and upgraded deterrence. North Korea should be aware Russia is using it as a pawn, and Russia eventually will abandon North Korea again, as it did in the 1990s when it downgraded the 1961 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance with North Korea and ceased calling North Korea an ally.
2024.07.07 23:44:17
[WT논평] American CEOs who succumb to the lure of China (3)
Arrogance and hubris are common threads that run from Mr. Immelt in the 2000s through Mr. Cook and Mr. Musk today. These master-of-the-universe Americans always assume they can outwit China’s gypsies, tramps and IP thieves. In 2011, Mr. Musk, for example, laughed off BYD ― but he isn’t laughing now. Neither is Mr. Cook. Meanwhile, the ghost of the great Jack Welch spins in his grave every time he thinks about how Mr. Immelt destroyed both Welch’s legacy and the beautiful GE that Welch built. Apple’s Tim Cook, in particular, try to subtly lobby my old boss, often through President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, for relief from tariffs. Mr. Cook inevitably argued that Apple was “too big in China to tariff” and that the tariffs therefore brought the company great harm. To Mr. Cook today, I would say, you should have been far more careful of what you asked of us. If you had done what Mr. Trump, then-U.S. Trade Representative Bob Lighthizer and I wanted, you would have steadily reduced your China exposure instead of doubling down to the point of putting your company at grave risk. To protect his electric vehicle factory in Shanghai, the world’s largest, Mr. Musk has been a loud, kowtowing bull in the pro-China lobbying shop. Mr. Musk openly praises the butchers of Beijing. Mr. Musk has also called for the subjugation of the vibrant democracy of Taiwan even as he uses his vast fortune and his social media platform, X, to thwart Xi Jinping’s nemesis Donald Trump in 2024. It remains an open question as to how one of the smartest and richest men on the planet can continue to be so stupid and devoid of ethical fiber.
2024.07.02 23:24:04
[WT논평] American CEOs who succumb to the lure of China (2)
Nor will this inevitable clash be fair. China uses any means necessary to give its national champions a leg up on ? and often a kick to the groin to - any American competitor foolish or greedy enough to produce on motherland soil. Like GE before it, Apple and Tesla now have this grim mercantilist reality. Because Mr. Cook and Mr. Musk each directed the offshoring of the vast bulk of Apple’s and Tesla’s production to China, the companies are at the mercy of a merciless dictator in Xi Jinping. Indeed, China’s national champion, Huawei, is pummeling Apple. To assist Huawei’s frontal and all-flank assault, China has banned its government officials from using iPhones. Mr. Xi’s autocrats are also aggressively leveraging Chinese nationalism to encourage its citizens to “Buy China” and shun foreign devil products like iPhones. Not surprisingly, Apple is now looking at a double-digit loss of Chinese market share in 2024. Of course, it’s a zero-sum game, as Apple’s losses will be gains for Huawei and even smaller fish like Xiaomi. Tesla faces its own eventual destruction with the sudden emergence of BYD. This is a formidable Chinese national champion weaned on China’s massive subsidies and its blatant theft of Tesla technologies and styles. BYD recently stunned the world by vaulting over Tesla to the top of electric vehicle production not just in China, but worldwide. Mr. Musk’s Teslas are also undergoing a similar kind of xenophobic Chinese ban. Teslas are prohibited from entering Chinese military complexes or housing compounds on the flimsy grounds the cars will be used to spy on China.
2024.07.01 23:39:14
[WT논평] American CEOs who succumb to the lure of China (1)
American CEOs who succumb to the lure of China’s sweatshops, pollution havens and government subsidies inevitably lose not just their souls. They eventually surrender their companies. Apple CEO Tim Cook and Tesla chief executive Elon Musk are just the latest in a long line of dupes now learning this harsh lesson ? a lesson they should have learned long ago from former General Electric CEO Jeff Immelt. In 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization and immediately began to bludgeon blue-collar America with its weapons of job destruction ? theft of intellectual property, currency manipulation, massive government subsidies, state-owned enterprises, etc. Mr. Immelt took over the reins of GE that same year from the venerable Jack Welch and soon began offshoring GE production. It was a big bet many American CEOs were making on China along with Mr. Immelt. But it was truly a sucker’s bet bound to go bust. As a matter of mercantilist government policy ? it’s all there in state documents for any CEO to read ? China uses its honey pot of cheap labor, lax environmental regulations, and massive land, energy and other government subsidies to lure foreign capital and companies. China’s quid pro quo, quite against WTO rules, is the forced transfer of an American company’s technology to nascent Chinese competitors in exchange for access to Chinese markets. Once a Chinese competitor is sufficiently endowed with American technology, it will not only compete against that American company in Chinese markets. It will also challenge American companies in lucrative markets around the world.
2024.06.30 22:56:56
[WT논평] The future for North Korea
Mr. Putin probably views enhanced relationship with North Korea as a positive development: help with weapons for the war in Ukraine and claiming an ally in his confrontation with the U.S. and NATO. For North Korea, it is an ephemeral victory. It is aligned with a revanchist Russian Federation and a leader who is bent on recreating the Russian empire. What that translates into is a Russia that will persist with wars of aggression and resultant alienation from the international community. Is this the future that Kim Jong Un envisions for North Korea? Is the technical assistance Russia currently provides worth aligning with a revanchist Russian Federation? Since September 2023, when Mr. Kim met with Mr. Putin in Russia, there has been a flurry of senior-level meetings in Moscow and Pyongyang and continued North Korean weapons assistance to Russia. This alliance with Russia may embolden Mr. Kim to do something provocative toward South Korea. It has also emboldened Mr. Putin to persist with his war in Ukraine, with the prospect that he won’t stop the war, regardless of the outcome. This is the Russia with which North Korea is aligned. This is not what Kim Jong Un’s father and grandfather envisioned for North Korea. It is not the future that will provide economic development assistance and greater security to North Korea and its people. It is not the future for North Korea that Mr. Kim was pursuing in his summits with Mr. Trump. Indeed, this is the time for North Korea to reengage with the U.S. and continue to pursue the legacy of Mr. Kim’s father and grandfather ? normalization of relations with the U.S.
2024.06.25 22:58:18
[WT논평] Far-right forces made major gains across the bloc
Politico reported on the European Parliament elections, “Far Right Wins Big.” Here’s how Politico styled the results: “As polls predicted, far-right forces made major gains across the bloc.“ Shouldn’t Europeans be concerned in the same way as many Americans about open borders, high taxes, jobs taken by migrants, lawlessness, crime, inflation, centralized government in Brussels, Russia’s hunger for expansion, and a general despair about where their individual countries and continent are headed? The European (and American) media continue to frame all things liberal as good ― even when their policies fail ― and conservative policies bad, even when their policies work. While the center-left remains in control of the 705 members of the European Parliament, conservatives won a major psychological and political victory. What amazes in Europe and the U.S. is why so many voters seem double-minded when it comes to policies that work and policies that don’t. I think it has something to do with voters who cast ballots based on feelings rather than on an understanding of economics, the importance of borders, a strong military to guard against terrorism and totalitarian adventurism, a shared moral value system that has proved itself over centuries, and a herd mentality. A debate and an election based strictly on issues and what has worked and what hasn’t is the way to build and sustain strong nations that contribute to their societies rather than a “take mentality” based on what you think you are entitled to. Four decades ago, events in Europe were a foretaste of what was to come in the U.S. Many of the circumstances were the same then.
2024.06.24 23:30:59