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[WT논평] The potential for instability in North Korea (2)
On May 12, 2022, North Korea’s state media announced that 350,000 people were affected by an “obscure febrile disease,” with follow-on media pronouncements that 1.2 million people were affected and 560,000 were in quarantine with 50 deaths, stating clearly that this was a major national emergency. The situation in North Korea must be dire, given these recent public statements from Mr. Kim and state media. It’s possible the April 25, 2022, military parade, contributed to spreading the coronavirus. The U.N. recently reported that 42% of the Korean people are undernourished due to food insecurity. That’s a concerning statistic, especially in a country with a weak health care system that’s currently experiencing food shortages due mainly to drought and biting sanctions. The challenge for Mr. Kim will be his ability to address the spread of the virus and starvation while, also, continuing to enhance his nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Given their close allied relationship, it’s logical to assume that Mr. Kim has reached out to China for medical assistance to address the spread of the coronavirus in North Korea. Indeed, the North is in dire need of COVID-19 vaccines and medical supplies, in addition to food aid ― rice, wheat, potatoes and soybeans. This comes at a difficult time for China where COVID-19 has reemerged and resulted in the lockdown in Shanghai and other cities, adversely affecting the economy in a profound way. Providing North Korea with the humanitarian assistance that reaches the people in need, in a country with a population of 25 million, is a moral imperative. The potential for instability in a nuclear North Korea must be of concern to all nations, but especially neighboring countries.
2022.05.30 23:17:59
[WT논평] The potential for instability in North Korea (1)
From 1994 to 1998, between 1 and 3 million North Koreans reportedly died due to starvation, during a period known as the “arduous march.” Floods and droughts contributed to widespread starvation in a country of 22 million people. Government mismanagement of its public distribution system and systemic problems in the agricultural sector also contributed to this tragic loss of life. In 1994 North Korea had just signed an agreement with the United States ― the Agreed Framework ― that halted the production of plutonium for nuclear weapons at its Yongbyon nuclear facility, in return for the construction of two Light Water Reactors ― for civilian nuclear energy. The Agreed Framework was successful in halting North Korea’s nascent nuclear weapons program until October 2002, when North Korea admitted to a visiting U.S. delegation that they had a covert program to enrich uranium. In 2022, North Korea is a de facto nuclear weapons state, reportedly with 40 to 60 nuclear weapons that can be mated to ballistic missiles that can reach South Korea, Japan and the United States. When the COVID-19 pandemic got the attention of the international community in January 2020, North Korea immediately closed its 880-mile border with China and isolated the country from the outside world. All trade, economic and diplomatic contacts were halted, with North Korea claiming that there were no cases of COVID-19 in the country. North Korea rejected the United Nations offer to provide 3 million doses of China’s Sinovac vaccine and the Astra Zeneca vaccine, with North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, reportedly saying vaccines weren’t necessary because the North had no cases of the virus.
2022.05.29 23:29:25
[WT논평] Victims of Communism Day
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed HB 395 into law on Monday, declaring Nov. 7 of every year as “Victims of Communism Day.” The new law requires public schools to reserve at least one day a year to teach students the dangers of communism and the tragedies it has caused. The bill specifically mandates schools finally discuss “decades of oppression and violence under communist regimes throughout the world” specifically noting how “the economic philosophies of Karl Marx … have proven incompatible with the ideals of liberty, prosperity and dignity of human life.” It also accurately discusses how communism’s “false promises or equality and liberation” has justified regimes that have been responsible for killing more than 100 million people. When Cuban dictator Fidel Castro opened the gates of the island, an estimated 125,000 Cubans risked their lives in hopes of reaching freedom in the United States. Those Cubans who fled the Castro regime are far from being alone. People from all over the world have risked their lives to escape communism by crossing the Iron Curtain and the demilitarized zone from North to South Korea, as well as making the dangerous trek throughout Latin America or even swimming from China to Hong Kong. Still, a poll conducted the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation found that 1 in 5 millennials and 1 in 3 members of Gen Z view communism favorably. Despite the brutality, slave labor and extrajudicial executions in countries like Soviet Russia, Maoist China, Juche North Korea and communist Cuba, schools have glossed over these historical tragedies despite their historical significance.
2022.05.25 00:05:36
[WT논평] Rising support for socialism (2)
Under socialism, there is no good mechanism for meeting consumer demand; the socialist leaders decide what the people should have. There is no mechanism for creating and encouraging innovation - that is why socialist states normally only produce something new after it has already been produced in a capitalist country and demand for it has been demonstrated. Like von Mises, F.A. Hayek, and others clearly demonstrated, the socialist economies have no way of determining prices without relying on market-determined prices in capitalist economies as a reference of how to allocate capital and labor. That is the main reason that socialist economies are endlessly plagued by too much production of things people do not want and too little production of things people do want. Every truly educated person, or anyone who has personally observed socialist economies, knows that it is a system doomed to misery and failure. So why then are the teachers’ unions advocating that capitalism be attacked, and socialism be applauded? The answer is simple, willful ignorance. What should be taught is comparative economic and political systems. Students should be challenged to understand what works and what doesn’t. Several organizations produce country comparative rankings of economic freedom, freedom of speech, religion, assembly, the press, and democracy. Some countries - Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, among others - are consistently near the top in all of these measures (which again are produced by different organizations). If students and their teachers had a greater understanding of these issues, the conflict would be reduced, and policies would likely be better.
2022.05.23 23:37:59
[WT논평] Rising support for socialism (1)
Recent polls have shown rising support for socialism and an increasingly negative view of capitalism, particularly among the young. A poll by Momentive found that for those 18 to 24, negative views of capitalism outweighed positive views by a margin of 54% to 42%. Most of those who say they support socialism are probably unaware that it has failed every place and time that it has been tried. They are also probably unaware that socialist countries of many different stripes managed to kill upwards of a hundred million of their own citizens over the last hundred years. They may also not be aware that socialism relies on coercion to function ― that part of the product that one person produces is given to another based on political or physical power. By contrast, capitalism relies on the voluntary exchange of goods and services, where a person tries to improve their own economic circumstance by serving the wants, needs and desires ― without force. Historically, people were most often ruled by absolute monarchs or dictators of various stripes. The political/economic options are in a practical sense limited to free-market democratic capitalism with a strong impartial rule of law, various forms of crony capitalism, or various forms of crony socialism ― the last two invariably morphing into an authoritarian government of some sort. Under capitalism, investment and productive labor are allocated by individual consumer choice. People want more walnuts and fewer almonds, so farmers plant more walnut trees - more SUVs and fewer sedans, so the auto companies adjust their product mix to meet changes in demand.
2022.05.22 23:11:36
[WT논평] Unidentified aerial phenomena
Among the reports delivered to Congress last June, one was extraordinary: An assessment by the Director of National Intelligence on unidentified aerial phenomena, or UAPs, better known as UFOs. The assessment could not identify a staggering 143 of the 144 UAP sightings it examined. Unsatisfied, the Senate is set to debate legislation in the annual defense authorization act to require comprehensive reports on UAPs. That elected officials would act openly on a topic long stigmatized is unprecedented. Yet a 2017 expose documenting a secret Pentagon UAP program helped topple old paradigms. Since then, NASA and prominent scientists at Harvard’s Galileo Project have announced that they will study UAPs. The Defense Department has launched internal evaluations and ordered data collected on mysterious craft seen violating restricted airspace. Avril Haines, the Director of National Intelligence, wondered whether UAPs are “something else that we simply do not understand, which might come extraterrestrially.” Major media cover UAPs while public attention grows. Collecting all UAP data within the entire bureaucracy, not just the defense and intelligence communities is a good start. But Congress should include private defense contractors, too. One, Dr. Eric Davis, described briefing Pentagon officials on retrievals of “off-world vehicles not made on this earth.” The recent “bipartisan oversight hearing” on UAPs shows that preparations are underway. Public testimony must come from trained military observers ― backed by hard evidence from scientific and surveillance instruments.
2022.05.17 23:21:38
[WT논평] Afghanistan has morphed into a terrorist state
Afghanistan, following the chaotic U.S. withdrawal last summer, has morphed into a full-blown failed terrorist state. Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri remains at large and Islamic State has a significant and growing presence inside the country. On top of that, Taliban-ruled Afghanistan continues to be the world’s opium hub. Faced with severe shortages of food, water and electricity, combined with a broken education and health care systems, Afghanistan today is deeply vulnerable to exploitation by terrorists. The Taliban has a long history of harboring al Qaeda and other terrorist groups on its territory. Afghanistan today is awash in ungoverned space, which, we learned from the Sept. 11 attacks, constitutes a significant threat to our homeland. Pakistan’s relationship with its erstwhile Afghan Taliban ally has become strained over the sanctuary Kabul is offering to the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), which have carried out ruthless attacks on the civilian population and targeted Pakistan’s nuclear program. That’s more than a touch of bitter irony for the South Asia watchers, who routinely criticized Islamabad for providing a safe haven to Afghan Taliban forces in their 20-year battle with the U.S.-backed Afghan government. The Taliban regime in Kabul is proving itself unwilling to take on al Qaeda inside its borders, and incapable of subduing Islamic State, increasing the threat to regional stability and to the U.S. homeland. Increased sectarian violence and terrorist attacks inside Afghanistan serve as a powerful force multiplier for terrorist recruitment efforts. Afghanistan is now a virtual petri dish for growing threats to the region and beyond.
2022.05.16 23:06:41
[WT논평] A significant paradigm shift for North Korea
It should be crystal clear: North Korea has nuclear weapons not only for defensive deterrence purposes but also, according to Kim Jong-un, in order to respond to any perceived threat to North Korea and its leadership. Mr. Kim made these comments at the April 25 military parade in Pyongyang, celebrating the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army. Mr. Kim then doubled down on April 30, as reported by North Korea’s state media, warning that Pyongyang could preemptively use its nuclear weapons to counter hostile forces. This is a significant paradigm shift for North Korea. During almost 30 years of negotiations with North Korea, its message was consistent: Nuclear weapons were for deterrence and self-defense, never to be used against the United States or any other country. Mr. Kim’s recent pronouncements make it abundantly clear that North Korea’s nuclear weapons could be used for offensive purposes, including preemptive use against any perceived threat. Mr. Kim is sending the United States and South Korea a warning: The self-imposed moratorium on intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear tests is over, and we are going to build more nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver them as far as the United States. Ignoring nuclear developments with North Korea is not an option. Whether we like it or not, North Korea is a priority issue that must be dealt with ― by China, the United States, South Korea, Japan and the international community. When a nuclear weapons country like Russia puts its nuclear forces on high alert we correctly are concerned. When Kim Jong-un talks of preemptively using nuclear weapons, we should also be concerned.
2022.05.15 23:24:43
[WT논평] Xi Jinping changed the political order of China (3)
The Asia Times’ David P. Goldman believes that, despite the caustic images coming out of Shanghai and the negative response to Mr. Xi’s zero COVID policy, the political damage will be kept to the Shanghai leadership. Mr. Xi will be insulated. Charles Burton, the MacDonald Laurier Institute in Ottawa, believes that Mr. Xi’s failure to develop or import effective mRNA vaccines and Mr. Xi’s family’s enormous corrupt wealth could readily lead to his downfall and even imprisonment as Mr. Jiang’s “Shanghai Gang” will mobilize rapidly once it is obvious that the zero COVID policy that Mr. Xi insists upon in Shanghai has failed. But, there’s something darker going on behind the scenes of this horrific lockdown in Shanghai. Mr. Jiang believes that Mr. Xi is using the lockdown to punish Shanghai in the same way that Mao infamously did during his reign of terror. In Mr. Jiang’s assessment, “Xi is punishing [Jiang Zemin]” because “The Party’s political system idealizes struggle and domination.” This assessment might be more accurate than many Western observers care to admit. At the very least, Mr. Xi is likely using his failed zero COVID policies in Shanghai as an excuse to clean house both Shanghai’s local ruling cadre and attack the “Shanghai Gang” led by Mr. Jiang. Given that Sun Chunlan, Mr. Xi’s vice premier, is only just now arriving in Shanghai to “manage” the crisis there, we are likely at the start of the crisis. The longer it goes on, and the less competent Mr. Xi’s response appears to other members of China’s elite and to the Chinese people, the less likely he will maintain his grip on power.
2022.05.10 23:09:44
[WT논평] Xi Jinping changed the political order of China (2)
It is important to understand that since Mao opened China up to the West, the CCP’s legitimacy has always rested on its ability to deliver prosperity to the expansive Chinese middle class. In exchange for this, the Chinese people cede increasing amounts of political power to the CCP. So long as that relationship is maintained, the communists remain in power. Should that agreement break down, however, political stability in China would be threatened in ways not experienced in almost a century. For almost a decade, Mr. Xi has been obsessed with exerting total control over China, despite the fact that the country had done so well under the light touch of his predecessors. In fact, according to Gordon G. Chang, author of “The Coming Collapse of China,” Mr. Xi is intent on having a “precedent-breaking third term as the Communist Party’s general secretary.” From declaring himself president-for-life to now demanding a third term as the CCP’s general secretary, Mr. Xi has done his best to cultivate enemies in the CCP’s leadership circles. Now, Mr. Xi is using his power to lockdown Shanghai, a country that accounts for 3.5% of China’s overall Gross Domestic Product. The stated reason is COVID-19 prevention. Under Mr. Xi, China has a zero COVID policy. However, the lockdown is proving to be very unpopular. Shanghai residents are protesting and fighting the restrictions. Rather than admit he was wrong by loosening the COVID-19 lockdown procedures in Shanghai, Mr. Xi has placed the blame squarely on the shoulders of the local Shanghai Communist Party officials. The narrative from Beijing is that the sloppy, freewheeling capitalists of Shanghai mucked the whole thing up.
2022.05.09 23:21:09