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[WT논평] China’s on-going campaign (2)
Beijing’s attacks on freedom of speech and the press in Hong Kong created a firestorm of international disgust, which only encouraged Beijing to expand the worldwide attack on their critics. Beijing contends that their 2020 “National Security Law” has extra-territorial “legal” authority to crack down on “criminals” who, for example, “like” a Twitter post critical of Chinese policy. While the new law was initially directed at Chinese critics of the regime’s Hong Kong policy, many believe it can and will be used against anyone who says or writes anything Beijing finds offensive. This fear stems from a new law’s Article 38, which gives Chinese security forces the authority to visit similar punishment on anyone who expresses disagreement with Chinese policies. The language of Article 38 claims jurisdiction in cases arising “outside the region by a person who is not a permanent resident of the region.” Donald C. Clark, a law professor at George Washington University, said “It is asserting extraterritorial jurisdiction over every person on the planet.” The language of Article 38 is a threat designed to make businessmen, academic experts, and reporters the world over to think twice before criticizing Beijing. It means, for example, that anyone who has expressed any criticism who later travels to China, Hong Kong any nation prepared to do Beijing’s bidding may be turned over to Beijing for arrest, trial, and imprisoned by the regime for statements made in London, New York, or Washington. In cases involving critics who have gotten under Xi Jinping’s skin, it means China might ask other countries to arrest and turn one of their own citizens over to his security forces to be tried for their “crimes” in China.
2021.11.01 23:04:04
[WT논평] China’s on-going campaign (1)
If you have been publicly critical of the Communist Chinese regime’s crushing of Hong Kong, hinted that you believe the COVID-19 virus may have escaped from a Chinese laboratory in Wuhan, or spoken favorably about Taiwan, Beijing’s security forces are claiming the right to come after you as part of China’s on-going campaign to silence its critics. In 2020 the US Department of Justice indicted five Chinese agents in New York who were part of something called “Operation Foxhunt,” set up on orders of Chinese President and Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping to harass and return dissidents who have fled China for trial. Prosecutors charged that these “foxhunters” warned several US citizens of Chinese descent and others that unless they returned to China, their Mainland relatives would pay a heavy price for their obstinacy. There is thus far no evidence that the Communist regime has kidnapped targets within the United States, but its agents do so when they believe they can get away with it in other countries. In 2016, a Chinese journalist who fled to India and Thailand to avoid arrest and persecution for criticizing the regime vanished while traveling in Southeast Asia only to turn up later as a prisoner in China. Xi Jinping’s regime considers critics “a security threat” and asks the rest of the world to treat them as terrorists or criminals who should be apprehended and turned over to Beijing’s security forces. They routinely request international help, posting the names of dissidents with Interpol and asking other governments to deport or extradite them to stand trial in China.
2021.10.31 22:49:44
[WT논평] The death of unskilled jobs (3)
The 2,500-year-old model of having the teacher stand up and give the same lecture to a group of students - who have very different stocks of knowledge and learn at different rates - is finally going to be relegated to history. The good news is that colleges that use poor classroom performers and who spend time in political indoctrination rather than imparting knowledge will see their students leave for more useful pastures. Students of the future (which is already upon us) have many more effective and lower-cost options to obtain the skills that employers need and require. Even the military is moving to more capital and knowledge-intensive forms of warfare. The multi-thousand-year era of large numbers of troops with spears, bows or guns moving across a “battlefield” has already passed. Soldiers far from the battle are increasingly operating combat machines, including aircraft, ships and land crawlers. Commanders know that in the age of biological, chemical and kinetic weapons it is suicidal to have large numbers of troops and other personnel in close physical proximity to each other. The heavily manned (personnel intensive) aircraft carrier is probably the last of the huge, largely non-robotic battle machines, and will certainly be obsolete as a weapon, long before the new ones are worn out. A general college education will be less important, but specific expertise - and certifications to verify the expertise - will be much more important. Computers/robots will increasingly do more and more jobs cheaper and faster. Those who have obtained the skills and expertise that are in demand and cannot be automated, along with the self-discipline to work with little supervision, can look forward to a prosperous future, and those who have not will always remain relatively poor.
2021.10.26 22:54:30
[WT논평] The death of unskilled jobs (2)
New communications’ tools like Zoom and endless other apps make this distant workforce a growing reality. The future has become now. It is no surprise that the states with the highest unemployment rates are all run by Democrats who have imposed high taxes and created a business-unfriendly regulatory and safety environment. Service workers, like waiters and bartenders, who have suffered a disproportionate share of the job losses, are finding that many of their employers have shut down for good. The job of the barmaid in Shakespeare’s London 400 years ago has barely changed except for the use of different payment systems. That is all about to change. Order- and food-dispensing machines, and now even robots, are increasingly being used in fast-food shops - and it is only a matter of time before robots will do most service jobs. With the rise of “AI” and better sensors, almost all jobs will be subject to greater automation. Over the last two decades, even lawyers have found this out the hard way, as much of legal search and standard contracts are now increasingly done by computers that don’t charge by the high-price billable hour, rather than lawyers. Surgical machines now greatly enhance the productivity of surgeons and improve outcomes. New computer software is now making it easier to fly and even land both small and large planes automatically without the direct action of pilots. In fact, most transportation jobs will be automated - self-driving trucks are already a reality. Politicians who have shut down schools in favor of “distance learning” will find that over the next few years far more individualized education will be delivered to students.
2021.10.25 22:55:59
[WT논평] The death of unskilled jobs (1)
COVID-19 is greatly speeding up the death of low-skilled or unskilled jobs. Likewise, the era of physical shopping areas with many thousands of potential customers close together is also rapidly dying due to new technologies and potential pandemics. In a normal recession, most private workforces get hit more or less equally. Not this time. The global recession induced by governments around the world ― with the argument it was necessary for our health ― have had and will continue to have a disproportionate negative effect on low-income workers and small businesses. By contrast, few government jobs have been eliminated. Large companies that are in retail/manufacturing/high-tech/communications have been largely spared. Amazon and Walmart have grown and have been allowed to operate. Not so with Mary’s dress shop or Joe’s sporting goods shop, both of which sell the same merchandise as the big-box stores. The lesson is clear: If you are not well-connected and big enough to hire those who grease the palms of the political class, they will not protect you. Politicians (particularly Democrats) love to brag about how much they care about the little guy. But their policies often deny the “little guy” opportunity and make them dependent on the politicians for degrading handouts. For generations, the politicos have done this to inner-city Blacks. But now, the COVID-19 pandemic has given them the opportunity to extend their dependency policies on many lower-income Whites and Hispanics. The shutdown has forced employers to manage major portions of their staff to work from home.
2021.10.24 22:40:06
[WT논평] The “loss” of Afghanistan’s vast mineral resources (2)
China has used control of these supply chains to dominate the industries and jobs that depend on them. China now produces 70 percent of the world’s solar modules and will soon be home to more than 100 lithium-ion battery mega factories, the technological heart of the EV revolution. The U.S. possesses mineral reserves estimated at more than $6 trillion. Our resources are important to shore up our economic security. It’s past time to ramp up domestic production. Now that the entire country of Afghanistan is under Taliban control, the U.S. should use every tool at its disposal to discourage the production of these resources by unscrupulous Chinese or Russian operators. President Biden must make clear that any Chinese or Russian companies that engage with the Taliban to obtain these strategic resources will be subject to sanctions in U.S. capital markets. As such, these entities would be banned from accessing U.S. investor funds. Companies that contract with the Taliban should also be placed on the Commerce Department’s Entity List-denying them access to U.S. equipment, technology, components, and services. Such penalties may well serve as a deterrent-and force state-controlled Chinese and Russian companies to make a stark choice between doing business with the Taliban or the United States. The current situation in Afghanistan is immensely difficult. But concern over the loss of Afghanistan’s minerals is misplaced. Access for the West was always extremely problematic at best. President Biden must move urgently to break U.S. reliance on mineral resources imported from China, Russia, and other geopolitical rivals.
2021.10.19 23:36:20
[WT논평] The “loss” of Afghanistan’s vast mineral resources (1)
The Biden administration faces major challenges as the United States withdraws from Afghanistan. Among the long list of concerns is the “loss” of Afghanistan’s vast mineral resources―particularly the raw materials critical to the production of renewable energy technologies―and their potential exploitation by the Taliban and Chinese partners. Yes, Afghanistan possesses significant mineral resources valued at more than $1 trillion. And since 2010―when an internal Department of Defense memo cited Afghanistan’s vast mineral riches―these resources have been used to justify the continued American presence. It’s also true that America’s technological and clean energy future rests on the availability of these critical minerals. In fact, the International Energy Agency recently reported that the growth of renewable energy systems and electric vehicles (EVs) could increase critical mineral demand six-fold by 2040. However, developing Afghanistan’s minerals―including everything from copper and rare earth metals to lithium―has always been enormously difficult due to the country’s rough terrain, fragmented infrastructure, and crippling instability. The Biden administration must work to deter Chinese cooperation with the Taliban in developing Afghanistan’s resources. Both the Biden and Trump administrations have rightfully expressed alarm regarding supplies of these essential materials. America’s mineral import reliance has doubled in just the past two decades. And at the same time, China has amassed stunning control over the world’s key mineral supply chains―and now controls 70 percent of the world’s lithium supplies and 85 percent of rare earth metals.
2021.10.18 23:03:09
[WT논평] Those now most vulnerable to the Taliban’s violence
Those now most vulnerable to the Taliban’s violence are Afghanistan’s women, especially to the violence of sex trafficking and forced marriages. It is imperative to proactively counter these crimes during the earliest stages of this new transition of power. Numerous reports have come out about the Taliban’s rounding up young women in Afghan households to serve as sex slaves and forced brides for their fighters. The Daily Mail UK reports Taliban fighters have been going door-to-door and forcibly marrying girls as young as 12 and forcing them into sex slavery, viewing them as ‘spoils of war’ to be divided up among the victors. Last month, reports had emerged that Taliban fighters were asking for lists of all women aged 15 to 45 who were unmarried or widowed. However, reports are that this has now extended down to girls as young as 12. Offering “wives” or sex slaves is part of the Taliban’s recruitment strategy to lure militants to join the Taliban. Which only serves to solidify their rule further. Furthermore, the selling and trafficking of these women help to fund their operations. Unlike drugs or weapons, a sex slave can be sold over and over again, and this sex trafficking builds the Taliban’s economic power so they can maintain political power. Facing the grim reality that the Taliban will not willingly change their pattern of violence toward women and forcing them into sex slavery, the United States has an opportunity to lead a global effort to place sanctions and financial pressure on the Taliban and terrorist groups operating under their rule to curb these horrific crimes.
2021.10.17 23:07:04
[WT논평] Making denuclearization unachievable (3)
To expect North Korea to walk away from its nuclear and missile arsenals and programs, which they view as a deterrent to ensure the survival of the Kim regime after the time and resources spent to establish these programs, will require a bold package of deliverables to convince Kim Jong-un that denuclearization will make North Korea more secure, and as a member of the international community, they will have access to international financial institutions for economic development purposes. Not getting North Korea back to negotiations and accepting the status quo, while thinking sanctions and additional pressure will convince Kim to return to negotiations is wishful thinking. Sanctions and additional pressure will only encourage Kim to build more nuclear weapons and missiles. It will also encourage Kim to work more closely with China and Russia, who may be willing to defy United Nations (U.N.) sanctions and provide the North with the aid and trade needed for its survival. It’s likely that without the resumption of negotiations, North Korea eventually will launch additional ballistic missiles, possibly to include an ICBM, with a likely seventh nuclear test. But even if North Korea refrains from such provocative acts, they will continue to build more Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium-based nuclear weapons, while continuing to test cruise missiles and other nuclear and missile enhancements, not prohibited by U.N. resolutions. And as North Korea continues down this escalatory path, inter-Korean relations will further deteriorate, with eventual reunification even more problematic. Resuming bilateral or multilateral denuclearization talks with North Korea should be a priority objective for the U.S. and its allies.
2021.10.12 23:35:08
[WT논평] Making denuclearization unachievable (2)
Getting North Korea back to the negotiation table should be a prime objective for the U.S and its allies and partners. A nuclear North Korea will encourage other countries in the region, like South Korea and Japan, to pursue its own nuclear weapons programs, despite extended nuclear deterrence commitments from the U.S. A nuclear North Korea also creates significant nuclear proliferation concerns, with the possibility that a nuclear weapon or fissile material for a dirty bomb will be sold or acquired by a rogue state or terrorist organization. We should never forget that North Korea sold nuclear technology and expertise to Syria, with Israel bombing the nuclear facility at Al Kibar in September 2007, just before it went operational. It will take more than a stated willingness to meet with North Korea any time and any place to discuss denuclearization to get North Korea back to the negotiation table. A message to Kim Jong-un, delivered through the New York channel, or South Korea or China stating clearly, and with specifics, that the U.S. is prepared to discuss all issues with the North when they return to negotiations. The North knows we want to talk about complete and verifiable denuclearization, but they will need to hear that we’re prepared to discuss a road map that, in an action-for-action process, would include, as the North dismantles all nuclear weapons and facilities, the lifting of sanctions, a declaration to end the Korean War, a path to normal relations with the initial establishment of liaison offices in our respective capitals, when North Korea returns to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear weapons state.
2021.10.11 22:53:04