가장 먼저, 그리고 끝까지 - 세계일보 -
[WT논평] The race to deploy Fifth Generation Wireless networks
America is racing the rest of the world to deploy Fifth Generation (5G) wireless technology first, and government shouldn’t get in the way of companies’ abilities to work together and innovate to produce the best possible mobile broadband networks for Americans. Just like smart phones connecting people across the world drove the Fourth Generation of Wireless technologies, new products and industries are driving companies forward in the race to deploy Fifth Generation Wireless networks. With 5G there are gains from innovation as simple as faster speeds and more capacity for in-home entertainment, to life-changing services like telemedicine and connected cars. Going beyond in-home broadband and business customers, we cannot realize the Internet of Things, IoT without the infrastructure and technology that 5G provides. The IoT includes devices, vehicles, home appliances and other items embedded with electronics, software, and sensors, etc., plus the connections that allow them to communicate. These new Internet “users” will require the high-speed mobile connections with low latency that only 5G technology can deliver. Deployment of 5G networks across America will happen; it is only a matter of when. In order to stay competitive and provide the best services, one way to get there is through the combination of T-Mobile and Sprint into the New T-Mobile. To get to a future where the mobile network lets us travel hands-free behind the wheel, connects our refrigerators with grocery stores to order more milk and allows farmers to reduce pesticide use, it’s going to cost the mobile-phone companies, chipmakers, device manufacturers and software developers about $200 billion a year in research and capital spending for the next five to 10 years.
2021.01.19 22:56:15
[WT논평] The year 2020 has been horrible (2)
There is a world food surplus. The reason that anyone goes hungry is a problem of distribution, not production. The people who have saved billions of lives are the mechanical engineers who designed and built the amazing machines that plant, tend and harvest our crops; the plant and animal geneticists who have modified seeds to give us much higher yielding and more nutritious food plants and farm animals; and the chemists who developed fertilizers and pesticides, all of whom eliminated famines and greatly reduced the cost of food. Last year, the average American farmer produced enough food to feed 166 people, up from 26 in 1960, and perhaps three to five people in 1800. There is no reason to expect the rate of technological advance to slow down. What this means is that agricultural productivity will continue to increase with farmers using robots to maintain the fields and harvest the crops as seeds, fertilizers and pesticides become better and more precise in their application. All of this means food will continue to become less expensive and better. The rate of progress in the medical sciences will continue to accelerate with more cures for diseases, such as cancers and other problems, and even reversing aging. What is holding back progress is the ignorance of the population, due to educational bureaucracy often more interested in indoctrination than real education, and the political class that feed off that ignorance. In time, it will become clear that locking down most of the population that was at little risk from COVID-19 (those under 65 with few serious conditions) was far more costly in terms of lives lost, and incomes and freedoms destroyed, than beneficial.
2021.01.18 22:41:06
[WT논평] The year 2020 has been horrible (1)
The year 2020 has been horrible - but it could have been worse. Approximately one-tenth of 1% of the population of the U.S. has died as a result of the COVID-19 virus - which is a great tragedy - but by historical standards it is barely measurable. During the Black Death in Europe peaking in 1347-51, it is estimated that the number of deaths was between 75 million and 200 million - killing a third to two-thirds of Europe’s population at the time. Smaller but recurring plagues continued to haunt Europe from the 14th through the 17th centuries. The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 is estimated to have killed approximately 675,000 Americans - about eight-tenths of 1% of the population at the time - which means that it was about 80 times more lethal than COVID-19. What is truly remarkable is that vaccines have now been developed and are being used in less than one-year, which most experts said was impossible. Medical science advanced at an amazing rate. A couple of years ago, a friend who is both an MD and bio-chemist told me that he thought the biological sciences had finally entered the realm of Moore’s Law. The increases in computer power have enabled physicists to do things that were viewed as near impossible. Elon Musk - a physicist and visionary - has created companies that are routinely doing things that people had said could not be done. You may have noticed there was no mass famine anyplace in the world in 2020, despite the world population being at a record high. Famines used to be common. Almost all famines in recent years have been caused by evil and corrupt governments like the Darfur famine in Sudan, not because of a lack of ability to grow adequate food for the world.
2021.01.17 21:47:07
[WT논평] Russian relations with China have improved (3)
No doubt, Mr. Putin is monitoring closely U.S. relations with China while pursuing programs to ensure that as Russia improves relations with China, U.S.-China relations deteriorate to the point of economic decoupling and the beginning of a new Cold War, this time with China. This would not be too dissimilar to U.S. rapprochement with China in the 1970s, when the Soviet Union was the common enemy. This time, Mr. Putin wants good relations with China, with the United States as the common enemy. Movement in this direction would be unfortunate for China and the U.S., and for the region and the international community. Russia’s aggressive exploitation of U.S. social media platforms, as we saw in 2016, continues to be used by Moscow to foment discord within the United States and, when necessary, to exacerbate international relations, as we’re witnessing with Soviet disinformation alleging that COVID-19 originated in the United States while also claiming that it was a bio-weapon. Mr. Putin may feel justified in exploiting social media for disinformation purposes, conflating it with the Reagan administration’s efforts to get factual news and commentary into the Soviet Union in the 1980s, when the regime was denying its citizens access to news and commentary on local and world events. Recent media reports about the Russian government allegedly paying Taliban forces to kill American and coalition forces in Afghanistan is beyond the pale, even for Mr. Putin. If these reports are true, then the U.S. and the international community should, at a minimum, impose punishing sanctions. This is the time for the United States to provide the international leadership necessary to expose, confront and punish Russia for its criminal behavior.
2021.01.12 22:50:24
[WT논평] Russian relations with China have improved (2)
This common enemy - the Soviet Union - brought the U.S. and China together, after decades of hostility. What ensued, initially with Presidents Carter and Reagan, and Chairman Deng Xiaoping and Premier Zhao Ziyang, was significant economic, scientific, academic and strategic cooperation. Cooperating to push back against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was part of this strategic cooperation. So, given the weaponry and the stinger man-portable surface-to-air missiles that the United States provided to the Mujahideen, Soviet casualties mounted, with an eventual humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989. U.S.-China relations have progressed exponentially over the past 41 years, especially in trade, investment, cultural and scientific exchanges, and strategic cooperation on issues dealing with international terrorism and organized crime, proliferation, narcotics trafficking and piracy on the seas. However, there are important irritants in the bilateral relationship, not uncommon in international relations. Russian relations with China have improved over the last two decades, with China and Russia establishing the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2002, a Eurasian political, economic and security alliance. Recently, China and Russia have conducted a number of joint military exercises, and in the U.N. Security Council they have cooperated closely, especially on issues dealing with North Korea. During this same period, however, U.S.-China relations have been challenged by a number of issues requiring greater attention: COVID-19, trade imbalance, intellectual property theft, South China Sea, treatment of Uighurs in Xinjiang and the recent national security law imposed on Hong Kong by Beijing.
2021.01.11 22:46:03
[WT논평] Russian relations with China have improved (1)
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who received popular support to remain in power until 2036, is on a crusade to ensure that Russia remains a first-tier nation, while actively pursuing a strategy to undermine the global leadership role of the United States. The implosion of the Soviet Union in 1991, which Mr. Putin said was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” appears to be the crutch Mr. Putin uses to justify: Intervention in Syria, meddling in the U.S. 2016 presidential election, allegedly paying Taliban forces to target American and coalition forces in Afghanistan, exploiting U.S. social media to disseminate disinformation on COVID-19 and other sensitive domestic issues. Knowing that these actions will generate responses from the U.S. and others, with sanctions and international opprobrium, then why is Mr. Putin pursuing such a confrontational policy? Simply stated: For revenge. Mr. Putin’s strategy appears to focus on improving relations with China while encouraging the deterioration of U.S.-China relations; exploiting social media to disseminate disinformation into the U.S. to undermine good governance, feebly mimicking U.S. programs in the 1980s that used the media to disseminate real world news into the Soviet Union and its impact on Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, who instituted Glasnost (openness) and the role, Mr. Putin believes, it played in the Soviet implosion in 1991. The Nixon visit to China and meetings with Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai in 1972 and normalization of relations in 1979 focused on an aggressive Soviet Union that was a nuclear threat to China and an enemy of the United States.
2021.01.10 23:11:47
[WT논평] Return to Normalcy (3)
Or rejoining the Paris Climate Accord without negotiating an arrangement more in America’s interests and less in China’s? Or re-starting the six-party talks with North Korea and expecting them to accomplish any more than they did last time? Or giving a pass to our European allies when it comes to their defense budgets? And most of all, what sense would it make to return to the JCPOA with Iran, without significant changes? The Obama administration kicked the can down the road, but we are now far nearer to the end of that road. By the end of the next administration Iran, which is already enriching uranium beyond agreed levels, can proceed fully and openly under the JCPOA with its nuclear weapons program. Finally, Mr. Trump has set the bar for American military intervention in a new place. But the American people and their representatives in Congress will hold a far more skeptical view of direct U.S. intervention unless core American interests are very carefully defined. This will complicate the choices available to policy makers. In short, the world has changed too much to simply return to the status quo ante Mr. Trump. Above all else, liberal orthodoxy will have to divest itself of its blind faith that economic development is an unseen motor which automatically brings about good outcomes. As Baudelaire said, belief in progress is a lazy man’s creed. It will be vital to face up to foreign policy challenges directly even if accommodation is the easiest short-term course. If we do not, the trend lines will soon enough cause us to wish we had - as we discovered after the 1920s.
2021.01.05 23:33:28
[WT논평] Return to Normalcy (2)
Policy toward China will require specific, tough responses. It will no longer do to allow China to pillage American businesses in trade relationships. It will no longer do to overlook China’s expansive foreign policy on its borders. Time is not on the side of waiting to address China’s policies. We cannot count on China’s economic development to do our work for us. Nor does Russia show signs of liberalizing. Returning to the pre-Trump years will not avail. It is not politically feasible to remove the economic sanctions the Trump administration has put on Russia. And given the breathless and unfounded accusations of collusion with Russia, it is difficult to see how a new Democratic administration can walk all this back. Another attempt at “reset” would be no more successful than the last one. We will remain at odds with Russia. Much the same is true elsewhere. Turkey’s economic success has not resulted in a more liberal government. To the contrary, Turkey has slid ever closer to an authoritarian regime. Nor has Egypt evolved in a way that guarantees increased support for Western liberal values. Neither the dictatorial rule of al-Sisi nor the return of the Muslim Brotherhood, even if elected democratically, will advance liberal values. Nor would a Muslim-oriented regime in Egypt be good for the people of Egypt, for Israel or for Israel’s new partners in the Middle East. Nothing would stop the evolving Middle East peace process quicker than a Muslim government in Egypt which is hostile to Israel. Does it really seem post-Trump that rejoining the WHO without significant reforms is a good idea?
2021.01.06 19:44:37
[WT논평] Return to Normalcy (1)
“Return to Normalcy” was a popular political slogan in the 1920s. The world war was an aberration and America would never again become entangled in European wars. The sentiment was understandable. But it was also wrong; in less than two decades America was at war again. One hears a similar sentiment today among our foreign policy elite: Donald Trump was an aberration and it is time to return to “normal” by which is meant the foreign policy outlines of previous decades. Rejoin the Paris Climate Accord, rejoin the World Health Organization (WHO), return to the six-party talks over North Korea and re-engage in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Excuse our allies’ refusal to pay their fair share on defense, reach out to the Palestinians to achieve peace in the Middle East and put the most charitable construction on China’s actions. All will be well. But this too is wrong. The world has changed in significant ways, some as a result of Donald Trump’s presidency, but some as a result of forces underway for decades before President Trump was inaugurated. In some instances, the Trump phenomenon was itself the result of these forces, more symptom than cause. The most important changes, of course, have occurred in China. It is to Mr. Trump’s credit that he realized that the consensus view on China for the past three or four decades was wrong. China’s economic development has not fostered political liberalism. Short of an unexpected, wrenching change in China there is no reason to expect it to do so in the future.
2021.01.03 23:22:31
[WT논평] A new and different world order (3)
Yet another organization working to defame America is the International Criminal Court. It was created by a treaty not ratified by the U.S., which means that under international law the U.S. is not subject to its jurisdiction. What’s more, according to its own rules, the ICC is to refrain from intervening in nations that have credible judicial systems. Nevertheless, the court’s prosecutors are targeting U.S. military and intelligence personnel for alleged war crimes in Afghanistan. Israelis are also in their sights for defending themselves from Hamas’ terrorist attacks. In response, the Trump administration has imposed sanctions on ICC officials. In response to that, more than 70 nations have now openly sided with the ICC. The U.N. and affiliated international organizations can be reformed. But it won’t be easy. No administration, Republican or Democratic, has made a serious attempt. Short of that, the U.S. could stop paying the lion’s share of the U.N.’s bills. That would require both the White House and Congress agreeing to make such cuts. Another possibility would be to construct one or more new organizations that would include only free nations and those moving toward that goal. These organizations would compete with the U.N. in such critical spheres as human rights and health. What if America’s leaders take no effective actions over the years ahead? In that case, we should expect the “international liberal rules-based order” to increasingly become supranational and illiberal, with rules made in Beijing and other capitals of unfree empires.
2020.12.29 23:08:12