For the first time since the 1950s, China is approaching a serious level of preparation for an invasion of Taiwan. It has outfitted its Army and Marine amphibious forces with a third generation of amphibious armor and can now mobilize potentially hundreds of usefully sized civilian barges and ferries that greatly expand military transport. Taiwanese analysts estimate that with combined military and civil lift China can transport 8 to 12 divisions to Taiwan, approaching the size of Taiwan’s 130,000-man army.

If acquired, a second generation of short-range ballistic missiles which China has developed could quickly increase total missiles aimed at Taiwan from about 1,200 to over 3,000. Any invasion attempt would be fraught with enormous risks for China but the fact remains that it is preparing for this purpose.

The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act stipulates that the president should sell “defensive arms” to Taiwan. The latest arms package includes about 500 new anti-tank and man-carried anti-aircraft missiles useful to counter invasion forces. But this package does not include high priority items for Taipei, such as assistance with its new indigenous submarine program or long-sought new fighter aircraft to replace its aging French Mirage-2000 fighters.

Consideration of these and other next-generation weapons will likely have to wait until the next U.S. administration in 2017. By then it will be necessary to consider a much larger arms package that should include submarine systems technology, assistance for a new indigenous fighter, and the beginning of new “asymmetric” capabilities. U.S. defense companies are now developing new longer range and precision guided artillery shells that could turn Taiwan’s 600 155 millimeter artillery systems into potent anti-ship weapons. By the early 2020s the United States may be able to offer new electromagnetic “railguns” that could perform anti-missile, anti-aircraft, anti-ship and land attack missions.

Selling arms to Taiwan would better reflect Taiwan’s value to U.S. strategy in Asia. By simply surviving Taiwan demonstrates to China’s citizens that they too can have political and economic freedoms and need not tolerate the Chinese Communist Party’s dictatorship.