There will be a major disruption in the global oil market, leading to higher prices, and this is why. The Russians and the Iranians are both taking major economic hits to their respective economies due to very low oil prices.

The Saudis, being no friend of either Russia or Iran, have a political motivation to weaken their economies. The Saudis, being a low-cost oil producer, would also like to drive their higher-cost global competitors, such as U.S. oil and gas frackers, out of business. Hence, they are producing enough oil to keep prices very low. If Saudi or other major producers had their production and distribution impaired, the Russians and Iranians would cheer.

President Vladimir Putin has already shown that he will go to great lengths to suppress potential oil and gas competitors. The reduction in potential competition and the resulting higher prices greatly benefited the Russians.

There will be another financial crisis, and global economic growth will be less than the most recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast, and this is why. Global government debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is at a record high, and in most advanced economies much higher than it was when the great global recession began. As debt, particularly government debt beyond a certain point, increases as a percentage of GDP, economic growth tends to slow. Government debt-to-GDP ratios now stand at approximately 98 percent of GDP in the United States, at 104 percent of GDP in the eurozone, and at a whopping 220 percent in Japan.

Any significant disruption to the world economy, such as my first forecast of a big jump in oil prices or a major terrorist attack, could easily throw the world back into recession, and this time it will be impossible to even try to spend back to recovery.