Corruption is endemic, and the leadership has rejected fundamental reforms, such as requiring public disclosure of assets by government officials, organizing genuinely independent oversight bodies, and eliminating restraints on the newspapers and networks.

The labor market remains tightly controlled with guidelines that often differ from agency to agency, and labor laws are applied differently in different localities. The government subsidizes numerous state-owned enterprises and is still committed to price controls for essential goods and services.

Economic models that suggest a 2 percent decline in Chinese growth would cut world growth by 0.5 percent, leaving it at 2.3 percent, the slowest since 2009, not far from global recession. The slowdown coincides with the trade dispute with the United States, weakening domestic sentiment and global demand, and alarming local governments using large-scale off-the-balance sheet borrowing.

Beijing authorities were trying to chip away at one of the highest debt mountains in the world, a stunning 253 percent of GDP. But their strategy coincided with the slowing of the big European export market and President Trump’s tariff initiative.

China’s economic growth has been steadily decelerating over the past decade, from a 14.2 percent in 2007 to 6.5 percent in the third quarter of last year. There’s no reliable indication of when a recovery will come. Beijing has successfully played a dominant role in the economy, and it will be exceedingly difficult to wean policymakers from that.

But that model inevitably leads to confrontation between China and the West. Current trade talks dramatize their differences.