China is focusing on taking Taiwan and expanding its influence in the South China Sea, not contending with conflict on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea’s allied relationship with Russia should concern all nations, especially those in Northeast Asia. It should also encourage the U.S. to double down on its mutual defense commitments to South Korea and Japan and ensure a continued U.S. military presence in both countries. Given China’s focus on unification with Taiwan, either peacefully or through kinetic means, indicates that a continued U.S. military presence in the region, which could be used to counter a Chinese military action on Taiwan, is not in China’s interest. Strong sentiment in South Korea is that it needs its own nuclear deterrent. The dominant view is that relying on the U.S. nuclear umbrella is problematic, especially now, given North Korea’s military buildup and alliance with Russia. It is not only South Korea that may consider nuclear options; Japan also perceives a potential threat from North Korea. This could prompt Japan to pursue its own nuclear deterrent. For 25 years, North Korea negotiated with the U.S., hoping to have a normal relationship. In 2024, Mr. Kim pivoted to Russia and gave up on the U.S. Indeed, Mr. Kim should be pleased with accomplishing a peace and friendship treaty with China and a mutual defense treaty with Russia. As an active member of the axis of authoritarian states with China, Russia and Iran, North Korea now, in a perverse way, has the international legitimacy it has pursued for decades as a nuclear weapons state. These unfortunate developments are not in the interest of the U.S. and its allies and partners.

He may think he can still get more. Or he may not want even to appear to be on the same page with satanic Americans. He’s not like us and he wouldn’t want anyone to think he is. Turn next to Vladimir Putin. As I’ve long argued, he fancies himself a latter-day czar. His goal is to restore the Russian empire, which, in the bellicose Kremlin speech, he called “great historical Russia.” He had been making progress toward this goal. In 2008, he cut two provinces from Georgia. In 2014, he seized Crimea from Ukraine and began an insurgency in Donbas. Belarus and Armenia have become Russian satellites. Back in February, many analysts doubted he’d invade Ukraine because saber rattling alone would almost certainly have resulted in restrictions on Ukraine’s sovereignty ― a clear win for him. When he did send tanks over the border, many analysts expected only a “limited incursion” that the U.S. and its allies could earnestly deplore and then rapidly forget. He believed ― as did most Western military analysts ? that his troops would easily overrun the Ukrainian army and subdue the Ukrainian people who, he insists, are nothing more than disobedient little brothers who deserve to be punished for refusing to return to the Fatherland. Instead, Ukrainians have fought, with astonishing courage and skill, to defend their land and independence. Mr. Putin announced that he is annexing Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson ― Ukrainian territories where his forces are losing ground.

The artificial lights of smart phones that people increasingly use before and in bed keep people up. Want a good night’s rest? Don’t bring the iPhone to bed. We would argue as well that society itself is structured in a way that keeps people up longer than they should. Prime-time television does not start until 8 p.m. World Series games regularly run until midnight. The NFL stands out here - most of its playoff games begin and end at a reasonable hour. Ever-longer commutes see Americans getting up earlier and getting home later. Suburban sprawl has many benefits - larger houses, comfortable lifestyles - but has no doubt cut down on Americans’ sleep. The notion that sleep should occur in one big chunk is also a modern phenomenon. In the Middle Ages, people slept in two shifts - “first” and “second” sleep. The interregnum between the two slumbers was used for prayer, creative work or having sex. But modern lifestyles have put paid to the notion of two separate sleeps. Should Americans’ sleeplessness be a government priority? Perhaps. In 2016, the RAND Corporation found that the lack of good sleep was costing the American economy more than $400 billion a year, mostly because of missed workdays. RAND chalked up Americans’ sleeplessness to “obesity, excessive alcohol and sugary drink consumption, smoking, lack of physical activity, mental health problems, long-term health conditions, stress at work, irregular working hours, financial concerns, and long commuting.” This suggests that rather than make sleep itself a policy issue, the government could look to reduce things like alcoholism. The improving economy should also help Americans rest easy.

Beijing’s targets in the Indo-Pacific and closer to home in the Caribbean and Latin America generally share the same characteristics: Poor when compared to the GDP of the 50 states, underdeveloped and generally forgotten. All sorts of basic infrastructure and other improvements are built or promised. Think hospitals, schools, highways, ports and airports. Some are freebies; others involve loans that will never be repaid. Moreover, as independent countries they have full voting privileges at the United Nations. This in and of itself is worth every yuan. The Solomon Islands, one of Queen Elizabeth II’s “other realms and territories,” became the most recent example. It ended diplomatic recognition of Taiwan after China promised $500 million in funding. Closer to home, Panama with the strategically important Panama Canal ? another former U.S. territory ? and the Dominican Republic, which voted for U.S. annexation in 1869 during the presidency of Ulysses S. Grant, have also aligned with Beijing. In addition to tariffs against China the president has also dispatched senior administration officials, including cabinet secretaries, and military leaders to the territories and elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific. Mr. Trump even hosted a historic White House summit with heads of state from the island-republics. The administration rightly understands that U.S. hegemony is at stake, if the flag isn’t flown over the American Lake. But merely flying the flag or even levying tariffs isn’t enough. Washington must up its game. It should start with a revival of the Monroe Doctrine. There also needs to be a re-examining of the relationship with the islands and their individual political status.

Europe’s most significant contribution to the world economy at the moment is serving as a bad example. Much of Western culture and law can trace its origin back to this city of 2,500 years ago. The ancient Athenians learned that democracy is fragile and can lead to bad outcomes ― not that other governing systems have proved to be more successful over the long run. One of the fatal flaws of democracy is the recurring irrationality of the people to vote themselves benefits that they are unwilling to pay for. The idea of getting something for nothing is so powerful that politicians have used the same con everywhere on the planet for thousands of years. The end is always the same. The music stops when the cupboard is empty. Greece is exhibit A at the moment of what happens when a country spends more than it produces without restraint. At some point, the lenders say, “no more ― you must live within your means.” For Greece, this has resulted in an approximately 30 percent drop in real per capita income during the last decade and an unemployment rate of 18 percent. Greece was the first EU country to go into a managed debt default and a reduction in living standards to reflect “pay as you go.” Unfortunately, Greece will not be the last. At some point in the not-too-distant future, both Italy and France are going to face a day of reckoning when they, too, will no longer be able to live on borrowed money. There is no mystery to the European disease: Excessive government spending not justified on a cost-benefit basis, including many “green” projects that have failed; tax rates far above the revenue and welfare maximizing rates that have only undermined the desire to work, save or invest; and regulations that make no economic sense and are so numerous and complex they only serve to undermine the rule of law.

Hong Kong, Cuba and Puerto Rico teach valuable economic lessons. Why is Hong Kong rich, Cuba very poor, and Puerto Rico struggling? Back in 1955, the islands of Puerto Rico, Cuba and Hong Kong had roughly the same real per capita income. They each took very different economic paths. Now, some 60 years later, Hong Kong is even richer than the United States on a per capita income basis. Cuba is an economic disaster, having gone from the richest Caribbean nation to the poorest, next to Haiti. Incomes have increased approximately 22-fold in Hong Kong, 11-fold in Puerto Rico, and only fourfold at best in Cuba, in a little over a half-century.Cuba became a communist nation, with the Soviet Union-Russia as its economic big brother, from which it received considerable subsidies. Hong Kong was a largely self-governing territory of the United Kingdom until 1997, when it became again a largely self-governing territory under China. Neither Britain nor China has provided subsidies to Hong Kong.Cuba is relatively rich in natural resources, and Puerto Rico has some, but Hong Kong has almost none. The improbable success of Hong Kong and the improbable failure of Cuba is a direct result of the economic policies each followed. Hong Kong is perhaps the best example of what can be achieved under the rule of law, with limited government and free markets. Cuba is a poster child of how rule by man rather than law, coupled with government ownership of the means of production and the destruction of the price system, results in no freedom and a great deal of poverty.Hong Kong has demonstrated what works, and Cuba as demonstrated what fails. Puerto Rico’s current ailments can be quickly cured by a good dose of greater economic freedom.국가경제의 성패를 가르는 정책노선 리처드 W 란(미국 세계경제성장연구소 총재)홍콩, 쿠바, 푸에르토리코는 소중한 경제의 교훈을 가르친다. 어째서 홍콩은 부유하고 쿠바는 극빈이며 푸에르토리코는 고전하는가. 과거 1955년 당시 섬나라들인 푸에르토리코, 쿠바, 홍콩의 1인당 실질소득은 대략 같았다. 각국은 매우 다른 경제의 길을 택했다. 약 60년 뒤인 현재 홍콩은 1인당 소득 면에서 미국보다도 더 부유하다. 경제적인 재앙인 쿠바는 카리브해에서 가장 부유한 나라에서 아이티 다음의 극빈국가로 변했다. 반세기가 약간 더 지나는 동안 홍콩의 소득은 대략 22배가 증가했고 푸에르토리코는 11배, 쿠바는 기껏해야 4배 증가했다. 상당한 규모의 지원을 제공한 구소련이 경제적인 빅브라더 노릇을 해준 쿠바는 공산주의 국가가 되었다. 홍콩은 1997년까지 광범하게 자치권을 행사하는 영국의 속령이었고 그 후 다시 대부분 자치권을 행사하는 중국 영토가 되었다. 영국이나 중국 어느 쪽도 홍콩에 지원을 제공하지 않았다. 쿠바는 여러 가지 천연자원이 비교적 풍부하고 푸에르토리코는 어느 정도 보유하고 있지만 홍콩에는 거의 없다. 홍콩의 있음직하지 않은 성공과 쿠바의 있음직하지 않은 실패는 각국이 따른 여러 가지 경제정책의 직접적인 결과다. 홍콩은 법의 통치, 제한된 정부, 자유시장 체제하에서 달성 가능한 최상의 모범사례일지도 모른다. 쿠바는 정부의 모든 생산수단 소유 및 가격제도 파괴가 겹친 가운데 법치가 아닌 인치가 어떻게 자유의 부재와 대규모 빈곤을 초래하는지를 보여 주는 상징적인 나라다. 홍콩은 무엇이 작동하는지를 보여 주었고 쿠바는 무엇이 실패하는지를 보여 주었다. 푸에르토리코의 현재 각종 병폐는 상당한 경제적 자유의 확대를 통해서 신속하게 치유될 수 있다. 역주=오성환 외신전문위원 suhwo@segye.com△struggle:고투, 힘겹게 나가다 △roughly:대략 △poster child:상징 △improbable:사실일 것 같지 않은, 개연성이 낮은 △a good dose:상당한 분량△demonstrate:보여주다, 실증하다, 입증하다 △ailment:질병

Job displacement is a nagging threat to the American worker as companies flee to locations overseas to save on labor, taxes and other costs. But more fearsome still is a competitor that rolls off another assembly line: the smart robot and its sidekick, the artificially intelligent computer. When a robot chef can prepare 360 hamburgers an hour -from grilling the beef to order, to slicing tomatoes and onions and delivering the order on a toasted bun ― the workplace battle between man and machine is on. The Automat returns. The promise of a secure job in a wide-awake American dream may never be the same.A survey by the Pew Research Center finds that two-thirds of Americans polled believe that within 50 years robots and computers will perform many of the jobs now done by humans. Their fears are well-founded. The Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts that 5 million jobs will be turned over to robots during the next several years. Workers in large corporations, where the impersonal is valued, are most vulnerable to competition from machines. The transition to a machine-run economy raises profound questions about civilization. If the point of economic progress is to improve the well-being of man, and if the arrival of a robotic age is making humans obsolete, the entire human enterprise is at risk. Nearly half of all Americans are dependent to some degree on government benefits.If automation is destined to accelerate the march of workers from the office, shop and factory to the unemployment line, only a great leap forward in the minds of the inventors can enable millions of displaced Americans lead productive lives. Humans, after all, are at their best when faced with a task that challenges their mental and physical gifts.로봇이 근로자를 대신하는 미래사회여러 회사들이 노동력과 세금, 기타 비용 절감을 위해 업소를 해외로 옮기는 가운데 강제이직은 미국 근로자들에 대한 만성적인 위협이다. 그러나 여전히 더 두려운 것은 또 다른 조립라인에서 대량생산되는 경쟁자인 스마트 로봇과 그 들러리인 인공지능 컴퓨터다. 로봇 조리사가 주문에 따라 쇠고기를 굽고 토마토와 양파를 얇게 썰며 주문대로 구운 번 빵에 넣기까지 시간당 햄버거 360개를 준비할 수 있는 시대에 인간과 기계 사이의 일자리 싸움이 계속되고 있다. 자동화가 재현되고 있다. 빈틈없는 아메리칸드림에서 안정된 일자리에 대한 약속이 예전만 못할 수도 있다.퓨리서치센터의 한 여론조사에 따르면 조사 대상 미국인 3분의 2가 50년 안에 로봇과 컴퓨터가 현재 인간이 하는 업무의 다수를 수행할 것으로 믿는다는 사실을 알 수 있다. 그들의 두려움에는 충분한 근거가 있다. 노동통계국은 일자리 500만개가 다음 수년 동안 로봇에게 넘어갈 것으로 예측한다. 비개인적인 것을 중시하는 대기업의 근로자들이 기계와의 경쟁에서 가장 취약하다. 기계가 운영하는 경제로의 이행은 문명에 관한 심오한 의문을 제기한다. 만약 경제 발전의 요점이 인간의 복지 향상일 경우, 그리고 로봇 시대의 도래가 인간을 구시대적인 존재로 만들고 있을 경우 인류 전체의 창의적인 사업이 위협에 처한다. 정도의 차이는 있지만 미국인의 절반 가까이가 정부의 각종 복지제도에 의존하고 있다. 만약 자동화가 사무실, 상점, 공장을 떠나 실업자 대열로 가는 근로자들의 행진에 박차를 가할 운명일 경우 발명가들의 정신 속에서 이루어지는 대약진만이 강제이직을 당한 수백만명의 미국인들이 생산적인 생활을 영위하는 것을 가능하게 만들 수 있다. 결국 인류는 인간의 정신과 타고난 신체적 재능에 도전하는 과업에 직면했을 때 최선의 능력을 발휘한다. 역주=오성환 외신전문위원 suhwo@segye.com△displacement: 쫓겨나 이동함 △roll off: 대량생산 △sidekick: 들러리, 조수 △bun: 번빵 △automat: 자동화 △wide-awake:정신을 바짝 차린, 빈틈없는 △impersonal: 비개인적인, 인간미 없는 △great leap forward: 대약진

North Koreans want to be accepted as a nuclear weapons state. They also want normal diplomatic relations with the United States. Kim Jong-un knows that if he wants a normal relationship with the U.S., with an immediate peace treaty similar to his current request, North Korea will have to dismantle all of its nuclear programs and eventually resolve issues related to the north’s human rights and illicit activities programs. Unfortunately, since 2008, Six Party negotiations have ceased and North Korea has conducted three nuclear tests (2009, 2013 and 2016), while claiming success at miniaturization. North Koreans have had numerous long- and medium-range missile launches, including putting a small satellite in orbit in April 2011. Reportedly, North Korea is close to launching a long-range, solid-fuel, mobile missile capable of reaching the United States. Estimates of the number of nuclear weapons in North Korea varies, with the Institute for Science and International Security claiming that by 2020, North Korea could have up to 100 nuclear weapons. Permitting North Korea to retain its nuclear programs is a regional and global threat. It is also a proliferation threat if a nuclear weapon or fissile material is provided to a rogue state or terrorist non state actor. North Korea did in fact proliferate nuclear technology to Syria, providing assistance in the construction of a nuclear reactor at Al Kibar. Moreover, it is widely believed other countries in the region will seek their own nuclear weapons if North Korea retains and enhances its nuclear arsenal.Given China’s close relationship and economic leverage with North Korea, Beijing could do more to moderate Kim Jong-un’s behavior. And given North Korea’s long-term interest in having a normal relationship with the United States, it’s also obvious that a dialogue with North Korea could possibly prove productive.북한은 핵보유국이다조지프 R 드트래니(전 미국 6자회담 특사)북한은 핵무기 국가로 받아들여지기를 원한다. 그들은 미국과의 정상적인 외교관계 또한 원한다. 김정은은 현재 요구하는 것과 비슷한 평화조약을 즉각 체결하여 미국과의 정상적인 관계를 원할 경우 북한이 자국의 모든 핵 계획을 해체하고 북한의 인권 및 각종 불법적인 계획과 관련된 현안들을 결국 해결해야 한다는 것을 알고 있다. 불행히도 2008년 이후 6자협상은 중단되었고 북한은 2009년과 2013년 및 2016년에 3차례 핵실험을 실시하는 한편 핵무기의 소형화에 성공했다고 주장했다. 북한은 장거리 및 중거리 미사일을 다수 발사했으며 그 가운데는 2011년 4월 소형 인공위성을 궤도에 진입시킨 것이 포함된다. 북한은 미국에 도달할 능력이 있는 장거리 고체연료 이동식 미사일 발사에 근접한 것으로 알려졌다. 북한이 2020년에 최고 100기의 핵무기를 보유할 수 있다고 과학 및 국제 안보 연구소가 주장하는 가운데 북한의 핵무기 수에 관한 추정치는 다양하다. 북한이 독자적인 핵 계획을 유지하도록 허용하는 것은 지역 및 세계에 대한 위협이다. 만약 핵무기 혹은 핵분열 물질이 불량국가나 비국가 테러 행위자에 제공될 경우 이것 또한 핵을 확산시킬 위험이 있다. 북한은 시리아의 알키바르에 위치한 원자로 건설을 지원함으로써 실제로 기술을 확산시킨 바 있다. 뿐만 아니라 만약 북한이 보유한 핵무기를 유지하고 성능을 개량시킬 경우 이 지역의 다른 국가들이 독자적인 핵무기 보유를 추진할 것으로 널리 믿어진다.중국과의 긴밀한 관계 및 북한에 대한 중국의 경제적 영향력을 감안할 때 베이징은 김정은이 온건하게 행동하도록 만드는 조치를 더 할 수 있다. 또한 북한이 미국과의 정상적인 관계를 유지하는 것에 대해 오랜 기간 관심을 기울여 온 것에 비추어볼 때 북한과의 대화가 아마도 생산적인 것으로 판명될 수 있다는 점 또한 명백하다. 역주=오성환 외신전문위원 suhwo@segye.com△miniaturization: 소형화 △leverage: 지렛대 △moderate: 조정하다, 누그러뜨리다 △possibly: 아마 △obvious: 명백한, 확실한

세계일보 페이스북 독자 여러분, [오늘의 퀴즈] 정답과 재치있는 멘트를 페이스북 댓글로 달아 주세요. 선정된 분께 모바일 문화상품권을 보내드립니다.다음 제시된 자음을 보고 문제를 맞혀주세요!어렵죠? 힌트 드립니다!* 강아지 관련 속담<7일자 정답>정답 : 4105 + 3 = 28 (5-3=2, 5+3=8 / 28)9 + 1 = 810 (9-1=8, 9+1=10 / 810)8 + 6 = 214 (8-6=2, 8+6=14 /214)5 + 4 = 19 (5-4=1, 5+4=9 / 19)7 + 3 = 410 (7-3=4, 7+3=10 / 410)▶이벤트 참여 기간 2월 한 달간(토, 일, 공휴일 제외)▶참여 방법 : 세계일보의 페이스북 페이지 '좋아요' 누르고 댓글을 달아 주세요.  당첨 Tip: 페이지 공유하기 &태그한 친구가 페이지 좋아요 누르면 당첨확률 UP!▶상품 : 모바일 문화 상품권(1만원 권)▶당첨자 선정 방법: 매일 ‘정답왕’ ‘재치왕’ ‘소환왕’ 각각 1분씩 총 3분을 선정해 돌아오는 월요일에 당첨자 공지 후 모바일 상품권을 발송해 드립니다.