[WT논평] North Korea can learn a lesson from China(2)
Denuclearization is the ultimate goal, although the sides cannot even agree to its definition, and giving up the only thing that gets it worldwide credibility is not in Pyongyang’s interest.
For the time being, Mr. Trump and his team are focused on confidence-building measures, the possibilities of which include a non-binding Korean peace declaration, opening a diplomatic liaison office in Pyongyang, human rights assurances and further repatriation of American soldiers’ remains.
And Trump and his team remain hopeful that Mr. Kim will agree to additional steps toward denuclearization, including disclosing previously undeclared facilities and allowing inspections and the monitoring of nuclear materials.
Mr. Trump comes bearing sticks in the form of sanctions and pressure on Pyongyang’s patron, China, and carrots in the form of sanctions relief, potential economic reform and the growth that would come with it.
Not an easy road, as Nixon detailed during his 1993 visit to Asia, which I reported in my book, “Nixon in Winter.” “Because the peninsula is split and the border is so militarized, the leaders in the south have to be good,” he said to me in Seoul.
“Korea is one of those places where the United States has a vital interest in seeing peace and stability. The North Koreans are isolated now that the Soviet Union doesn’t exist; they’re desperate and, frankly, nuts.”
Nixon told South Korean president, Kim Young Sam, “The North Koreans have such unpredictable political leadership. Many thought the Soviets were evil, but none thought they were crazy. We cannot say that about the North Koreans. It is the most closed, secretive society in the world.”
2019.06.11 00:10:27
[WT논평] North Korea can learn a lesson from China(1)
Fifty years ago, an American president prosecuted a war against North Vietnamese communist forces aided and abetted by its powerhouse ideological bedfellows, the Soviet Union and China. Today, another American president visited a reunified Vietnam where full-throated capitalism is delivering an economic miracle to a once poverty-torn communist hellscape.
President Richard Nixon ended the war in Vietnam, and in his final years advocated for normalization with Hanoi and economic liberalization now in place. The current president, Donald Trump, is reported to be impressed by the economic progress he’s witnessed and is pitching North Korean leader Kim Jong-un similar results for his nation if he abandons his nuclear weapons program.
Much has changed since Mr. Nixon addressed the challenges of the Pacific Rim. But as Mr. Trump now tries to initiate a new relationship with North Korea while managing global expectations and security concerns of allies like Japan and South Korea, he may find Nixon’s words on the matter instructive.
As Nixon’s foreign policy assistant during his last years, I accompanied him on his final trip to Asia in April 1993. His primary regional concern at the time was, of course, China, around which everything else then, as now, revolved. But he was intensely worried about North Korea and its nascent hunt for nuclear weapons and the ballistic missiles with which to deliver them.
Today, thanks to a devastatingly naive deal struck by President Bill Clinton, Pyongyang has both, destabilizing the region and the world. Mr. Trump has achieved a halt to nuclear testing, although intelligence suggests that Mr. Kim has continuing producing warheads and missiles.
2019.06.09 23:47:01
[WT논평] The catastrophe caused by the Venezuelan revolution
The slow-motion catastrophe that is the Venezuelan revolution shows no signs of abating. It keeps going, going and going, and in ever steeper descent.
Not very long ago Venezuelans lived in the richest country in South America, awash in oil, with the world’s largest proven oil reserves, all set upon abundant fertile land.
The ruinous policies of the late Hugo Chavez and his chosen heir put an end to all that, and set Venezuela’s economy in ruins. Mr. Chavez, who took power in 1999, nationalized and plundered national industries, bankrupted his country’s financial reserves with lavish social spending and raised interest rates to the point that business simply cannot function.
His successor has accomplished what was thought impossible. He has made things worse. Facing crippling deficits as oil prices collapsed, Mr. Maduro printed money. Hyperinflation followed, of course, and as the government ran out of foreign currency it could no longer import basic goods. Toilet paper became a prized and rare item in Venezuela.
Every Venezuelan with the means fled the country, creating a refugee crisis in neighboring countries. Independent economists in Venezuela expect by the end of this year that the nation’s economy will have shrunk an astonishing 35 percent over the past five years, and the poverty rate has risen to 87 percent.
Paying for a cup of coffee, a visitor observes, can take an hour. Streets are empty after dark. Streetlights no longer work, and the only people out after dark are kids rummaging through garbage cans looking for something to eat.
The rape of Venezuela demonstrates once more that the place where Marxist economics works is in a textbook. Nothing revolutionary about that.
2019.06.05 00:58:44
[WT논평] Trump withstands slings and arrows from the media
To hear many in the media tell it, President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal was the worst thing to happen since he was elected.
“Trump withdraws from Iran nuclear deal, isolating him further from world,” a CNN headline read. A New York Times reporter said the president is “isolating the United States from its Western allies.”
Notice a pattern? Almost all of the criticism I’ve cited here (and I could cite many more examples) focused on how Mr. Trump is breaking with the rest of the world ? as if that, in and of itself, is irrefutable evidence of error.
There is no inherent value to swimming with the tide. Yes, we should pay attention to what our allies are doing, but to suggest that following a different course of action is proof that we’re doing something wrong is ridiculous.
Real leadership is standing up for what’s right, regardless of what others are doing. Indeed, it takes genuine strength to buck the trend. And the trend on the Iran deal is something that definitely called for some serious recalibrating ? something that our big-thinking president excels at.
Mr. Trump knew that the Iran deal, far from ensuring peace, has been posing a threat to it. So it followed that having a huge player such as the U.S. pull out of it wasn’t dangerous. On the contrary, getting rid of a bad agreement is a key first step to avoiding the real danger: a nuclear-armed Iran.
“This was a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made,” the president said. Our allies know this. For political reasons, though, they can’t say so publicly, so they have to leave the U.S. to take the flak.
2019.06.03 23:14:38
[WT논평] Economic forces are powerful in driving history
The GDP of North Korea is less than half that of Fairfax County, Virginia, and only a little more than half of Vermont’s, which has less than 3 percent of the population of North Korea.
Iran has a GDP smaller than Belgium’ (and seven times the population). Russia has a GDP which is smaller than that of Italy, Texas or South Korea. The GDP of California is more than twice that of Russia, even though the Russian population is three-and-a-half times that of California.
The Trump administration has made a bet that it can reach agreements with each of these three countries (North Korea, Iran and Russia) to reduce military tensions because it understands that it is dealing with economic pygmies, whose economies are going nowhere.
North Korea, Iran and Russia have much to gain by reducing the confrontation with the U.S. ? and to do otherwise means eventual economic and/or military suicide.
North Korea has the most centralized and least open economy in the world. As a result, it is also one of the poorest of the poor. Six decades ago, North Korea was richer on a per capita basis than South Korea, but now capitalist South Korea has more than 20 times the real per capita income of communist North Korea.
Kim Jong-un is, of course, well aware of the relative success of the two Koreas.
The enhanced sanctions have clearly put the regime against the economic wall. In sum, he has every incentive to try to reach some sort of accommodation ? because he has almost no other option if Mr. Trump remains firm. Also, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has just offered Mr. Kim a carrot in saying that we would help him reform and build his economy.
2019.06.02 20:25:47
[WT논평] The two rogue nations are rattling sabers in unison (2)
The offensive, plus Tehran’s announcement Wednesday of its intention to restore nuclear enrichment, demonstrates how American economic pressure is pinching Iran. But hell must freeze over before Iran starts the long thaw.
In contrast, North Korea’s inscrutable strong man has seen the distant light of a new day. Chairman Kim Jong-un himself supervised the testing of a short-range ballistic missile and other projectiles, which splashed harmlessly into the Sea of Japan but raised the hackles of its South Korean and Japanese neighbors. Rather than an act of aggression, the test was meant to telegraph the message that talks with the United States over denuclearization have soured dramatically.
President Trump, who routinely meets Iranian animosity in kind, greeted the North’s latest militaristic display with the forbearance of a doting uncle.
The difference this time may be the investment he has made in winning the confidence of Chairman Kim. Walking and talking together during bilateral summits in Singapore and Hanoi, the odd couple by all accounts have forged a genuine rapport.
The difference between the two rogues is that Iran’s mullahs threaten to strike out at enemies in foreign lands, and Chairman Kim seems intent on merely testing the patience of his counterpart of the same flesh and blood in the south.
Korean denuclearization and reunification is not a problem that can be solved through politics alone. It’s something of a family matter. If Mr. Trump can help both North and South to keep the porch light on, his wish for a productive third summit with Mr. Kim may yet come to pass. The slow march toward peace in Asia, however, is on a path that Iran’s mullahs seem determined not to walk.
2019.05.28 23:56:06
[WT논평] The two rogue nations are rattling sabers in unison (1)
The two most obstreperous children in the “family” of nations are at it again, rattling sabers as if in unison. Iran’s furtive provocations in the Persian Gulf are roiling the Middle East and North Korea’s resumption of missile testing is once more putting Asia on edge. America’s responses are distinctly different, because the Islamic state’s hostility is uniformly implacable, and the flame of reconciliation still flickers within the Hermit Kingdom. Where there’s light, there’s hope.
Citing “troubling and escalatory indications and warnings,” the United States announced Sunday that it had dispatched the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, with its accompanying strike group and a bomber force, to the Middle East. This is in response to indications that Iran may be preparing to attack either U.S. military forces or oil tankers plying the waters of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a third of the world’s oil supply transits. “The United States is not seeking war with the Iranian regime,” said National Security Adviser John Bolton. “But we are fully prepared to respond to any attack, whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or by regular Iranian forces.”
The bushy-browed mullahs in Iran can’t tolerate so much as a sidelong glance from the West without dissolving in outrage, and President Trump has pushed their most sensitive button. He suspended waivers for nations purchasing Iranian oil as he restored tough economic sanctions a year after withdrawing the United States from the Iran nuclear deal. Threatening the region’s oil routes could spike oil prices around the world, and the cost to Iran for the pursuit of an Islamic Bomb spiked through the roof.
The deployment of U.S. military forces follows the firing of rockets at Israel from positions in Gaza, where Iran supplies money and weaponry to the ruling Hamas organization.
2019.05.27 21:01:55
[WT논평] China has waged a trade war, targeting U.S. industries
To win a trade war or any diplomatic skirmish - be it disarming North Korea, stifling Russian aggression or fixing unfair trade ? the president needs to know the enemy, cultivate allies and implement a strategy that imposes more costs on malefactors than on Americans.
Mr. Trump’s hawks, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro, confuse trade with the world and trade with China. The World Trade Organization (WTO) isn’t busted and our allies are not trade criminals.
No Western government fully adheres to the free market ideal embodied in WTO rules, including ours. Its dispute settlement mechanism is there to decide when incidental contact becomes pass interference ? WTO panelists are no more perfect than NFL referees.
The Middle Kingdom got rich with mercantilist practices that exploit its developing country status in the WTO. That permits higher tariffs and weaker adherence to other rules, but China is a powerhouse and merits no such special treatment.
Its notorious industrial targeting - opaque administrative barriers to imports that supplement high tariffs, extravagant production and export subsidies and criminal acquisition of Western technology through compulsory joint ventures and outright piracy - is virtually impossible to police through WTO dispute settlement.
It would be like prosecuting tens of thousands of white-collar criminals on Wall Street each year. Those are terribly difficult cases for government lawyers to win, even one at a time.
If Beijing wants to rig trade, then it must be balanced. Otherwise, China accumulates hundreds of billions of dollars it can use to buy influence through its Silk Road initiative and acquire Western technology companies.
2019.05.27 00:13:42
[WT논평] North Korea must feel ‘maximum pressure’(2)
Mr. Kim needs to be convinced that such a scenario is credible. Joint U.S./South Korean military exercises is one way to send that message.
Another is for President Trump to ask the Pentagon to give him a new report on military options. Implementation would be a last resort, of course, but not an unimaginable one. On the contrary, as Gen. Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said almost two years ago: “What’s unimaginable to me is allowing a capability that would allow a nuclear weapon to land in Denver.”
If we do not prevent Mr. Kim from acquiring nuclear weapons that he can deliver to American cities (and/or use for blackmail), efforts to prevent the Islamic Republic of Iran from following suit are sure to fail as well. The list of rogue and adversarial nuclear-armed powers will grow thereafter.
Years ago, we should have started seriously preparing for such a disastrous contingency. How better to establish deterrence than with a comprehensive missile defense system capable of shooting down any missiles launched anywhere in the world?
Such a system is technologically feasible. No treaties restrict us. But for decades, American leaders, Republican and Democratic alike, have dawdled, procrastinated or insisted that robust missile defense is too expensive. Is it?
Rebeccah Heinrichs, a missile expert at the Hudson Institute, said. “Consider the value of what you’re protecting. Compare that to the cost of the missile defense system.”
What will it cost to rebuild Denver, New York, Washington or Los Angeles following a nuclear attack that we failed to prevent?
2019.05.21 21:10:10
[WT논평] North Korea must feel ‘maximum pressure’(1)
I’m rooting for those within the U.S. government who will argue that it’s time to apply sticks, rather than dangle carrots, time to begin a “maximum pressure” campaign ? an option Mr. Trump favored then shelved prior to the Singapore summit last June. Could maximum pressure lead Mr. Kim to the conclusion that nuclear weapons imperil rather than protect his dynasty? We’ll never know unless we try.
Among the many actions now required: Imposing harsher and more comprehensive economic sanctions, and severing North Korea’s connections to the international financial system. Chinese and other non-Korean banks now conducting illicit business with the Kim regime need to be sanctioned as well.
North Korean laborers abroad are virtual slaves. Their living conditions are horrific, and the Kim regime skims hundreds of millions of dollars from their paltry pay checks. U.N. Security Council Resolution 2397 mandates the expulsion of all such workers by 2019. But most governments won’t meet their obligations unless they feel diplomatic pressure from the United States and ? this would be nice ? from U.S. allies.
Also, U.N. sanctions prohibiting North Korea from obtaining oil and fuel through ship-to-ship transfers can’t be enforced without enhanced surveillance, patrols and interdictions.
North Korea uses its embassies and other diplomatic outposts to engage in covert commercial and financial activities. American diplomats need to persuade host governments to crack down.
What else, beyond this economic squeeze, should keep Mr. Kim awake at night? In Singapore, Mr. Trump showed him a 4-minute video promoting the benefits if he gives up his nukes and pursues peace, security and economic prosperity with energetic American support.
2019.05.20 23:04:32

