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[WT논평] Not only U.S. but other nations should protect tankers (1)
A threat to the global oil supply imperils the global economy. Iran’s menacing behavior toward oil shipments moving past its shores is just such a threat. The community of nations cringes at the notion of the United States acting as the world’s policeman. The American people do, too. But when conflict erupts on the high seas, as on land, who but the Americans are expected to do something about it. Civility may someday outlast malevolence, but not today. Iran is proof of that. Even while Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attempted to mediate peace with the Islamic republic in Tehran recently, a Japanese oil tanker moving through the Gulf of Oman was hit by something bad, probably a magnetic mine sowed by Iranian amphibious forces. A Norwegian tanker received the same unfriendly treatment. So much for the Persian tradition of treating guests better than family. A more modern Iranian tradition is to oppose the United States in every deed and nearly every word. The one exception was the 2015 Iranian Nuclear Deal, in which the regime agreed to President Obama’s request to slow down its quest for nuclear weapons in return for hundreds of billions of dollars and inviting commercial opportunities. President Trump’s decision to halt the nonsense, reimpose economic sanctions and hold the mullahs’ feet to the fire has, predictably, rekindled Islamic wrath. Retaliation by targeting oil shipments in the Persian Gulf have occurred twice recently, damaging six tankers, with a denial of Tehran’s involvement. Taken together with the announcement that Iran intends to pay no attention to the limit on its enriched-uranium stockpile, as agreed to in Mr. Obama’s celebrated nuclear deal.
2019.07.08 23:23:46
[WT논평] A simple prescription for “gaming disorder”
There’s a new mental health condition in town and it’s called ? video gaming. The World Health Organization just revised its disease classification manual to stipulate that the compulsive playing of video games is a psychological condition called “gaming disorder.” A more apt name for it is Parents Who Enable Their Kids Syndrome. “We come across parents who are distraught, not only because they’re seeing their child drop out of school, but because they’re seeing an entire family structure fall apart,” Dr. Henrietta Bowden-Jones, spokeswoman for Britain’s Royal College of Psychiatrists, told The Associated Press. In other words: Parents let their children play video games all day instead of making them go to school, go to work or, move out and lead an adult life ? so the distress that naturally results has led to this dimwitted decision at the U.N.-affiliated WHO. And it is dimwitted because once it’s recognized that video gaming is a mental health condition, then the next logical step to take is to develop the cure. As Shekhar Saxena, the director of WHO’s department for mental health and substance abuse, put it, the recognition of gaming disorder will open doors to meet “the need and the demand for treatment in many parts of the world.” But let’s not find the solution in a prescription bottle. The answer for so-called gaming disorder is much easier than that ? so much easier, in fact, that it can be summed up in a single word: Unplug. Pull the cord. Hit the off button. Lock the PS4 in the closet. No need to drug the kids. Truly, we just need better parents ? more disciplined, stronger, committed parenting ? and much, if not all, of this gaming disorder nonsense would simply go away.
2019.07.07 20:27:50
[WT논평] Are fossil fuels the energy of the past?
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global oil demand will increase by 11 million barrels per day by 2040, driven mostly by a 30 percent increase in Asia. That even incorporates the growth of electric vehicles, because most of the increased oil demand will come from petrochemical manufacturing. The data from just China and India ? the world’s largest and third-largest energy consumers, respectively ? are stunning. China’s total energy consumption from all sources in 2017 was roughly 23 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Non-hydro renewables in China accounted for the equivalent of about 782 million barrels of oil in 2017, or around 3.4 percent of China’s total energy consumption. The world’s second most populous country, India, is also driving global oil and gas demand. Even though renewables had double-digit growth in India from 2016 to 2017, the country’s dependence on fossil fuels was unchanged. In 2016, renewables accounted for 2.5 percent of all primary energy use in India. In 2017, they were 2.9 percent. Oil delivers 10 times more energy for India than renewables. The country will more than double its oil use by 2035, making it the fastest growing oil consumer in the world. India gets twice as much energy from natural gas than renewables. Growing global energy demand will require a diverse set of resources and approaches, including fossil fuels, renewables, and efficiency. And to be sure, the recent growth in renewables has been impressive. But amidst discussions about the so-called Green New Deal and as activists paint a rosy picture about transitioning to 100 percent renewables within 10 years, it is more important than ever to focus on data over political slogans.
2019.07.02 23:47:18
[WT논평] The reason why we must denuclearize North Korea(2)
North Korea’s first test of a nuclear device was in 2006, and over the next 10 years they conducted four more. These were fission tests, with relatively low yields ? although increasing. And in all probability they were test devices, not weapons. Their sixth test, in September 2017, surprised the world. It was a high-yield thermonuclear device. Now they were ready for weaponizing and production. North Korea started developing missiles for nuke delivery years earlier, but it was slow work initially short-range, then intermediate-range, with many failures. But in July 2017 they had their first two successes with intercontinental ballistic missiles. Now missiles also were ready. All they needed was time for integration and production. For the United States, also, time was critical. There could be no delay. We must launch a hard, sustained series of conventional strikes to denuclearize as much of North Korea as possible. If we moved fast enough, North Korea might not be able to make any nuclear response. At this point, Kim Jong-un ? trained by his father and grandfather since birth ? proposed to the United States that the Korean peninsula be denuclearized. His proposal has already gained him a year. Only the future knows what the outcome will be. But the United States is running a high-stakes gamble. If the agreement fails, the United States will have no alternative but to strike conventionally, as fast and as hard and as comprehensively as possible. Once the two rogues are denuclearized, and America has shown that U.S. military force can defeat proliferation, the world will learn to live comfortably with controlled but unused nukes.
2019.07.01 21:08:12
[WT논평]The reason why we must denuclearize North Korea(1)
Extraordinarily high stakes ride on the pending denuclearization agreement with North Korea. And there is also an immense time-urgency about concluding the agreement far greater than almost anyone realizes. Here’s the situation. When two irresponsible and belligerent rogue states began determined crusades to acquire nuclear weapons ? North Korea in the 1990s and Iran a decade later ? there was no global nonproliferation regime left to oppose them. Hand-wringing, tame diplomacy and unenforceable sanctions were the best the world could muster. These were no match for the persistence of the two rogues. At any point in the following two decades, the United States could have easily denuclearized North Korea by military force (which would also have prevented Iran’s nuclear adventures); but American voters, after suffering the nuclear terror of four decades of Cold War, elected a generation of arms controllers and anti-nuclear activists as our national security leaders. It also allowed Iran to reach a nuclear weapons threshold, doubling the imminent threat the world faces. America has never understood that these two rogues are the harbingers of doom. Unless stopped, they will bring a world of nuclear horror and chaos. It’s not that they will use their new nukes that would be suicidal. It’s that North Korea will sell them to any buyer; and that Iran will give them to proxies for use. Many dozens of states, large and small, will have nukes. They’ll be everywhere, uncounted, uncontrolled, and in worldwide black markets. The globe will be dotted by radioactive, deserted, ruins of cities. And there’s no way back. The issue is clear. North Korea and Iran must not be permitted to acquire nukes.
2019.06.30 23:28:37
[WT논평] If Iranian and Venezuelan oil production declines
When President Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, analysts warned that Iran’s crude oil production and exports could decline, forcing crude oil prices up. But one thing remains clear: The recent U.S. gas and oil boom will help fill any impending gaps in the global energy supply. Thanks to hydraulic fracturing, U.S. crude oil production should grow to help meet or exceed demand over the long term, which means prices will likely stabilize at a reasonably affordable price. If the reimposed U.S. sanctions apply to Iranian oil production ? an issue that is as yet undecided ? daily global production could decline by 1 million barrels or more. And then there’s the failed state of Venezuela. The country currently produces about 1.4 million barrels per day, down from about 2.4 million a decade ago. And production continues to decline. Iran and Russia, and to a lesser extent Venezuela, use their oil revenues to help finance political mischief around the world. So cutting their oil revenues enhances global stability and peace. The good news is that the United States has the resources and the ability to fill the gap, and rising crude oil prices could serve as the catalyst to do so. But there’s more. Great Britain, and the European Union in general, has been reluctant to engage in fracking. That may be changing. Great Britain is considering allowing fracking. While this effort seems initially to be limited to natural gas, crude oil likely won’t be far behind. The price of crude oil will fluctuate, sometimes wildly. But high oil prices and low U.S. production costs mean Iranian and Venezuelan oil production declines can be replaced in the near future.
2019.06.25 23:44:23
[WT논평] Resistance in Hong Kong (2)
“One country, two systems” is the slogan, though it’s come under increasing strain over the past decade. Democracy in Hong Kong may be withering away as Beijing tightens its grip, but it’s not dead yet. June 4, 2019, the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre passed quietly in the People’s Republic. Not only are memories of the massacre suppressed, but public protests are banned, and can be punished harshly. Hong Kong, the pebble in the shoe, is different. Not only was the anniversary marked, as it is every year, with a candlelight vigil, this week the streets have been thronged with protest of a proposed law that would enable Beijing to extradite criminal suspects from Hong Kong to be tried in mainland China, where the courts seem to be administered by kangaroos. Hong Kong saw the largest protest of China’s authority since Britain ceded control in 1997. Organizers estimated more than a million people demanded that Beijing shelve the law. “A snaking crowd that included young families, students, professionals and the elderly streamed through the city, reflecting unprecedented and widespread opposition to the latest move by Beijing to bring the former colony to heel,” The Wall Street Journal observed. “Critics say the proposed law could be abused to target political dissidents and would expose citizens to the mainland’s more opaque legal system, where detainees could be unfairly jailed and abused.” The proposed law would be, as many in Hong Kong argue, the final blow to “one country, two systems,” and begin in earnest the merging of Hong Kong’s free, open, accountable, and democratic system with Beijing’s Communist, corrupt, closed, and opaque dictatorship.
2019.06.24 21:19:14
[WT논평] Resistance in Hong Kong (1)
Hong Kong is the pebble in China’s shoe. The Beijing government didn’t try to swallow Hong Kong whole when the British gave up the ghost, and the colony, in 1997. The Beijing government, which seems to have a low opinion of its constituents, promotes the line that Chinese people are incapable of democratic government and they are not capable of the rule of law and consequently are not due the liberties and freedoms common in the West. Chastened by civil strife, poverty, and marinated over the centuries in Confucianism, the Chinese people gravitate toward autocracy, the communist line goes. Chi Wang, the president of the U.S.-China Policy Foundation, described this earlier this year in an op-ed in the South China Morning Post as the idea that “it doesn’t seem that the nation could support a democracy. China lacks the ideological framework under which democracy could spontaneously develop or be fostered. Confucianism is inherently undemocratic; it encourages obedience, not freedom or personal liberty.” There’s a hole in this argument, created by Taiwan and Hong Kong. Those feisty enclaves of Chinese democracy give the lie to the self-serving notion that China will always be undemocratic. Taiwan and Hong Kong are living rebukes to Chinese president Xi Jinping’s vision of a forever oppressive Chinese state. Mr. Xi has makes no secret of his scheme to ultimately stamp out the embers of freedom in those enclaves. In recent days densely populated and prosperous Hong Kong and its 7 million residents, now technically part of the People’s Republic of China after the handover from the British in 1997, still maintain a semblance of an independent economic and political system.
2019.06.23 23:26:37
[WT논평] ‘Holy Grail’ of AI & Machine Learning
A team of researchers from Maryland say they’ve invented a general artificial intelligence way for machines to identify and process 3-D images that doesn’t require humans to go through the tedium of inputting specific information that accounts for each and every instance, scenario, difference, change and category that could crop up. This development will have the power to shape and change how everyone from police to retail marketers and medical professionals go about their daily business. Currently, neural networks, defined as those computing systems that are aimed at mimicking how humans think and make decisions, are only as good as the information that’s inputted. But seriously, that information has to get quite specific; it has to account for each and every circumstance that could come, or else face system failure. Enter ZAC. ZAC, for Z Advanced Computing Inc., is bringing general artificial intelligence to the 3-D world. “We have figured out how to apply General-AI to Machine Learning, for the first time in history,” said ZAC executives. Retailers trying to snag online customers can market, advertise and showcase their products with a variety of descriptors, in a variety of angles, and add in new merchandise without having to reprogram the entire system ? and buyers, meanwhile, will be able to search on specific terms that will direct them right toward the products they’re actually seeking. That’s just retail. Think medical applications; national security and law enforcement. What if doctors could simply upload 3-D images of their patients and receive speedy identification of diseases? Or police, scanning crowds for suspects, could input photos of faces for quick, even real-time alerts?
2019.06.18 21:08:46
[WT논평] The lessons of the Tiananmen Square massacre(2)
There will be no ceremonies in mainland China to mark the dark days of June 1989 when Beijing brutally crushed the rebellion. No one will lament the loss of life ? not unless he wants to put his own in danger. The names of the dead won’t be spoken, at least not publicly. And to a large extent, not even privately. That’s because of the second thing Chinese leaders are using to prevent new protests: Technology. A recent Agence France-Presse article detailed just how thoroughly monitored the Chinese people are in 2019. Cameras are everywhere. Police booths have sprouted block by block nationwide. Websites that aren’t government-approved are blocked. Officials use artificial intelligences and facial recognition to keep tabs on suspected troublemakers. “Enhanced surveillance technology makes it much more difficult to see any mass demonstrations like the Tiananmen protests in 1989 to happen nowadays,” Patrick Poon, China researcher at Amnesty International, told AFP. But Chinese officials aren’t simply watching everyone like a hawk. They’re engaging in some of the worst human-rights abuses in the world. Three decades after the Tiananmen Square Massacre, it’s obvious that conditions have gotten much tougher for the people of China. It’s easy to see why some consider a recurrence of the 1989 protests “impossible,” to quote Li Datong, a former editor at Beijing Youth Daily. The thirst for freedom is a powerful force. Fear can’t last forever. People can get so fed up, they’ll even face down a line of tanks. Then the rulers are really in trouble.
2019.06.17 23:23:47